Level of awareness about current stage of Karabakh process varies significantly in Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA) presented the first ever internationally conducted “Comparative Opinion Polls in Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh on Socio-Political Issues and Foreign Relations.”

Asked about possible peace deal components, Armenians are positive about those options which they think will help bring peace while keeping Nagorno Karabakh closely linked to Armenia, but they are overwhelmingly opposed to making concessions to Azerbaijan.

The level of awareness about the current stage of the conflict resolution process varies significantly among the population. A clear majority of older people, men and better educated people say that they are quite or very informed about the current stage of the resolution process, but a majority of younger people, women and those with less education say that they are mostly or not at all informed. This lack of awareness is highlighted by how almost half of people in Armenia could not name one component of a potential peace deal.

Nonetheless, although many people did not know unprompted about the potential peace deal components, they had clear views about them when presented with currently debated options. Armenians are very strongly in support of components that would ensure Nagorno-Karabakh is tightly connected to Armenia, such as a corridor linking the two countries (given an average approval figure of 7.95 on a 10-point scale), and they are overwhelmingly opposed to components that are seen as ceding too much back to Azerbaijan, especially returning territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan (1.55 on a 10-point scale), even if this was part of a comprehensive peace deal and the Azeri military was banned from those territories.

Interestingly, Armenians do not reject all measures. They seem to wish peace and are fairly positive about those measures which they think will help solve the conflict but without conceding too much, such as a ceasefire consolidation and confidence-building measures to create a better basis for further progress in peace negotiations (6.72 and 6.47 on a 10-point scale). They also support international security guarantees that include a peacekeeping operation (6.43) and the implementation of and an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh that provides guarantees for security and self-governance (5.62), as long as these are part of a comprehensive peace deal.

The Armenian support for a consolidation of the fragile ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, e.g. the removal of snipers and installation of international observers at the line of contact, is striking (second most favoured option, 6.72 on a 10-point scale). They strongly believe it would reduce Armenian and Azeri casualties on the line of contact (71%), reduce the risk of war (64%) and make it easier for the OSCE to advance the peace negotiation (66%).