Results of referendum in Azerbaijan are modest, fairly democratic

PanARMENIAN.Net - The amendment will allow the current President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to preserve his seat as leader of the country for an indefinite period. Aliyev was elected to his first term in 2003 and was reelected last October with 88.73% votes.

As a matter of principle, the overall results, or rather the figures could be different; instead of 92%, they could, for example, be 100% or even 105%, as it was at the time of the elections of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Of course, Ilham Aliyev is more democratic than Saakashvili for the mere reason that unlike Georgia, he has gas and oil. It isn't important that the oil reserves are too modest; the essential thing is that they can be gambled on. Baku is always forgetting that the world has changed after Barack Obama was elected a president. It has changed so much that even «brotherly» Turkey is reconsidering her policy towards Azerbaijan. As noticed, long stay in power dulls the ability to adequately perceive the reality and react to the changes in outward things. This was the main reasons that after 4 consecutive presidential terms of in fact great President Franklin Delano Roosevelt the USA, anyway, put restrictions on the term of office of US presidents. The amendment to the US Constitution was adopted in 1951. Eight years is nearly an optimal period, but not for the Aliyev clan, which, to all appearances, will be governing Azerbaijan for good, or, at least, until the carbohydrates are up.

And before it in sultanate - Azerbaijan cannot be called otherwise - there will be held another referendum, which will ensure lifelong power for Aliyev and his offspring. One could say Heydar Aliyev's dream has come true or, at least, it is on its way…

The amendments include another interesting detail: the presidential term can be prolonged if conduct of military operations during wartime makes it impossible to hold regular presidential elections. In this case, the term is prolonged till the end of the operations. That is, only for the sake of permanent governing Ilham Aliyev can simply declare war against Nagorno Karabakh, which, in its turn, may result in the collapse of both Azerbaijan and the Aliyev dynasty.

It is not difficult to predict the further steps and statements of the Azerbaijani leadership: first, for decency, the new sultan will «thank the people who love him», then he will do away with the opposition, and… afterwards will meet the President of Armenia. But there is still enough time till May 7, the assumed meeting in Prague, for Azerbaijan to manage a couple of statements, like "The Azerbaijanis' patience is coming to an end", "Territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is firm", etc.

In all this story of the referendum there is one more fact that casts doubt on «Azerbaijan's democratic state and correspondence to international standards», as well as «full approval» of the observers. To all appearances, it's all the same to the observers from various international organizations what outcome elections in post-Soviet states will have, since they are defined as falsified from the very beginning. They cannot be democratic or open; simply, they can sometimes not live up to the expectations of the West and the USA. Only in this case, there begin accusations and threats, followed by sanctions. And it's rather interesting: this play to the audience sometimes works. It was the case with the presidential elections in Armenia. Politicians had allegedly scrupulously calculated what dreadful results Armenia would face after separation from PACE, the Program "Millennium Challenges". But, in reality, it is just twisting of arms of the authorities so that they would not be independent - no matter of whom. Among all the examples the case with Azerbaijan is the worst: people swallowed the results of the referendum; opposition did not stir a finger, and Mehriban Aliyeva gained a reputation of a «kind» first lady by submitting the draft Law on Amnesty. Naturally, Ilham Aliyev could not turn her down.

It is almost impossible to imagine a lifelong president in Armenia. After all, it is pointless too: Baku has her policy, we have ours.