"Maindorf-2" in St. Petersburg

PanARMENIAN.Net - Let us first of all note that the West is now playing a waiting game rather than occupying an active position; Bryza's statements are, naturally, not counted. Europe is waiting for Armenian's response to Moscow's pressure, after which she can dictate her rules for the game. In a broad sense, Yerevan cannot be said to be the loser but neither is it appropriate to expect special dividends. Azerbaijan is in no better position - in exchange for waiver of Nabucco, Moscow will promise her nothing more but one or two regions in the security zone. Still a pair of months ago political scientist Leyla Aliyeva (Ilham Aliyev's daughter) dropped a remark that Azerbaijan can obtain only two regions at best… Certainly she knows what she says. The only question is which two regions she meant. If we use the method of exclusion, we stop at Fizuli and Cebrail. But here the factor of Iran comes forth. The thing is that right in these regions the latter is building hydroelectric power plants. We'll not even speak of the other regions as they are of military-strategic significance and their handing would undoubtedly mean losing the Nagorno Karabakh Republic.

In exchange, Yerevan might be proposed a recognized status of the NKR, to which Baku gives no consent. Although, who knows, the majority of statements of the Azerbaijani President are directed to his own people and hardly can they be received seriously at least by the co-chair countries.

However, there is one circumstance to be considered. A bulk of false information has been thrown into the region recently, misrepresenting the real state of affairs. It must have required minimal efforts taking into account the non-professionalism of media outlets of all the South Caucasian countries, and it can be deduced that the throw-in has been consciously calculated to worsen the relations between the countries, of course if further worsening is possible. Rumours about certain documents "almost ready to be signed" are directed to accelerating the repartition process of the existing boundaries, and it may all be done much earlier than we expect. The Caucasian society lives chiefly on mutually excluding rumours and fantasies. Against this background it is most easy to start a diplomatic war, which can easily develop into a real one as soon as all the interested parties are tired of convincing Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran to come to a friendly agreement. Energy is the core of everything - the rest is secondary. In this regard the Saint Petersburg summit, in spite of the loads of empty phrases, will be dedicated to the gas pipe, which Russia is eager to monopolize. And if Moscow succeeds in 'breaking' Armenia, the issue of Nabucco can be considered almost settled. However, no matter how unpleasant it may be for Russia, the USA has the last word.

Thus, most likely in Saint Petersburg there will be signed just another transient document, meant for the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies and likely to be proofread during the visit of the US President to Moscow. If Medvedev and Obama come to an agreement on redistribution of influence spheres without bloodshed, the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be said to be once again postponed till better time. The only thing that can shuffle the maps is the probable normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations contrary to the Russian scenario.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan