Regrouping of interests begins in the region

PanARMENIAN.Net - Let us consider these countries one by one. In the foreseeable future the first three countries will hardly change their attitude towards Yerevan because of the uncompromising position of Turkey (and Azerbaijan) in every issue, starting with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and concluding with the difference between religions. Under such circumstances it is necessary to note that Islam, on the whole, is not such an important constituent in the relations with Christian Armenia; however, when necessary, it is put in the forefront. There is one more aspect to be considered - the difference in civilizations: nomadic and settled. Regarding Turkey and Azerbaijan this aspect is most clearly expressed, while in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan it is not so apparent.

The position of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan proceeds not only from the Islamic solidarity and the support of Azerbaijan, but also to spite Iran, which together with Turkey is a basic pretender to the leader's position in the region. The Kurds, or, to be more exact, the relation of Yerevan towards them plays an important role in this plan too. Having been an instrument in the hands of the Ottoman and Persian Empires for several centuries, the Kurds now pose a serious threat to the integrity of Turkey. It is a very serious factor, even further straining the negative relation to Armenia, which by the Sunni Islamic world is considered to be almost the central supporting base of Kurdish separatism. As we have already noted, religion is only a pretense; the main reason is that in the course of its history Armenia has prevented the propagation of Islam, and before it - the propagation of Zoroastrianism. This principle did not work in the case of Iran; most apparently the common Parthian origin of our nations subconsciously played its role. But we'll reflect on Iran a bit later. The second serious pretender to the position of the regional leader is Pakistan, possessing nuclear weapons. Naturally, no one is going to employ them, but as a deterrent it works well. Regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Pakistan has been on the side of Azerbaijan since earliest times, and there are facts proving that Pakistani militants joined the Afghan and Chechen mujahideen in the war against the NKR. The possibility of dominance of Saudi Arabia is somewhat problematic because of the military presence of the USA during the war with Iraq for Kuwait, and in this case it may play its negative role. However, this factor is not that important.

As far as the Moslem countries are concerned, which traditionally support Armenia, the presence of Egypt, Syria and Iran in this list is more than reasonable and justifiable. First of all, rather an important role is played by the strong Armenian Diaspora. It should be remembered that Armenia, Egypt and Syria are also "friends by a concourse of circumstances"; Egypt and Syria gained independence as a result of collapse of the Ottoman Empire, just as Armenia to a certain extent. With respect to Yerevan, Syria and Egypt attempt to conduct a policy, more independent from the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), and Iran will never obey the dictates of Turkish-speaking countries in OIC. The only thing Armenia should endeavor to avoid is to be squashed between the upper and the nether millstones of geopolitics, especially because she has already such an experience. There is no guarantee whatever that Armenia will not again be sacrificed to the interests of the powers: both old and new. Although there is some guarantee and no matter how strange it may sound, it is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Until the conflict gets final settlement on those conditions, which satisfy the conflicting parties to a greater or lesser extent, it is possible to live in a relative peace. But since there is no compromise in the air - similar conflicts cannot be solved without blood in the favor of this or that side. Almost no one doubts that sooner or later there will begin a war in the region. Simply time is required to integrate forces and finally clear up who against whom will "befriend". However, it will become clear in no less than five years. By that time it will be clear how the gas will go to Europe and what ending the infinite trading between Russia and the West will have. Everything may also occur considerably earlier: however, nothing essential will occur in the region before 2012, i.e. the time when Nabucco is launched and the railroad Baku- Tbilisi-Kars is built. There will be episodic diplomatic wars and statements to a fault, analogous to the Armenian-Turkish agreement signed April 23, 2009.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan