Stakes on Presidential Elections of Iran

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, it's worth mentioning that these 30 years were not lost. After Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, Iran that was on the verge of collapse, developed into a strong and prosperous country, presently pretending to the position of the regional power. The nuclear ambitions of Iran played an important role in achieving this, although it is yet unknown whether they are real or it is simply a game with the muscles of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one of the participants in the assault on the American Embassy in 1979. They say Ahmadinejad lives in an old house of his, drives an ordinary car and is in no way like a president of a regional power. Nevertheless, he was able to win the previous elections and now has all the chances to duplicate the success, of course if he is really agreeable to the western partners. And here the complicacies begin. In the issue of Iran, the USA and Europe have opposite positions, to say nothing of Russia that has her own interests in the region and holds age-long ties with the Persian Empire. For Europe, Iran is important as the supplier of alternative energy and Teheran knows it well. For the USA, she is an "Empire of Evil" or something closest to it. But the Obama Administration is far from Rice and Cheney, who managed to convince the world that Iran must be punished for her nuclear program. There is one more important detail in the difference of approaches of Europe and the USA towards the future of Iran - the ocean. America is rather far and the problem of energy security of Europe doesn't worry her much. Or, better to say, it worries her but from purely imperial points of views. The same is true about Russia, but she is nearer and therefore - more dangerous.

"To me, this election is basically a referendum on President Ahmadinejad," says Nasser Hadian, Political science professor at Tehran University. In order to gain victory the current President used all the existing resources. The official media outlets, television and majority of newspapers are under his control. He travels through the Iranian province, where majority of his electorate lives. But his opponent is strong too. Fifty-four per cent of Iranians are ready to vote for former Prime Minister of Iran Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Let us note that he used to be the prime minister of the country for 8 hardest years - during the Iran-Iraq war. In 1988 Iran signed cease-fire, reached through the UN mediation. A year later Ayatollah Khamenei replaced late Ayatollah Khomeini in the position of the Spiritual Leader of Iran. The posts of the President and the Prime Minister were combined into one. President of the country became Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mousavi had to leave political life. After former President Khatami declared his unwillingness to participate in the coming elections, Mousavi announced his candidacy. And today he is the main rival for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Both Khatami and Mousavi are ethnic Azerbaijanis, but in a wider sense this makes no difference; any President of Iran will carry out the policy, which is advantageous to his country. The only matter is whether he will be able to carry it out and whether both internal and external forces will let him do it. Quite possibly Iran enters a new phase that was once interrupted after the withdrawal of Khatami, one of the first reformers. But, who knows, the positions of Ahmadinejad are rather strong too. On the other hand, Mousavi has promised to make the country more democratic. For instance he intends to repeal the order in which the standards of Moslem morals are controlled by the special police of dispositions; he is also ready to change the role of woman in the society.

To make predictions in this case is rather difficult - parties interested in the victory of this or that candidate are too many. Stakes are high too - the Iranian gas, so necessary to Europe, especially when the realization of Nabucco is becoming ever more illusive. The outcome of elections in Iran barely plays any role for Armenia, but it is of great significance to Azerbaijan. Some politicians in Baku have already been hasty in stating that in case of Mousavi's victory the country's treatment towards Azerbaijan will be changed, for he is Azerbaijani. However, these hopes are too naive. Mohammad Khatami is Azerbaijani too; however, the policy of Tehran towards Baku hasn't changed at least for the last 30 years. Let us not make predictions, as not always they prove to be true for Iran. Naturally, the world is tired of the scandalous statements of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but is there any guarantee that the one replacing Mir-Hossein Mousavi will be more "convenient"?

Karine Ter-Sahakyan