Imperial ambitions must be given legal implementation

PanARMENIAN.Net - The persistent incomprehension of current geopolitical realities since 1988 in Azerbaijan and since 1991 in Georgia led to the fact that Tbilisi and Baku constantly speak about the war as a method of solving all their problems. Founding the block GUAM to spite CSTO, Georgia and Azerbaijan are trying to impose on the South Caucasus their vision of peace and their model of a clan state that, quite naturally, has nothing in common with the "commitment to democratic values", proclaimed by Ilham Aliyev and Mikhail Saakashvili. The bill that was submitted to the RF State Duma and will undoubtedly be passed by the Federation Council, also aims at consolidating Russia 's presence in the region. Gas and oil as leverage are good for the time being, but the military component is always important, especially now that the United States with the help of Georgia and Azerbaijan wants to oust Russia from the region, no matter how hard Mathew Bryza tries to persuade that "the United States is not against the Russian presence in the Caucasus; it has always been and will remain in the Caucasus".

Actually, the bill gives good legal base for the possibility of using the CSTO collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF), which, after all, are established to prevent aggression from the countries of other blocks. And since NATO in the foreseeable future is not going to unleash a war against Russia , there remains only the block GUAM or, to be more concise, what remains from it, i.e. Azerbaijan and Georgia . The Ukraine and Moldova do not count: the relations with Kiev have worsened so much that President Medvedev has even refused to send an ambassador there. Moldova evidently falls out from the Georgian-Azerbaijani axis for the absence of common interests. So, there remain only Tbilisi and Baku with the unquenchable thirst of revenge and the passionate desire to return the territories that never belonged to them. But for all that, both capitals are perfectly aware that no "framework agreement" will be able to return a plot of land; there's been no precedent for this throughout the history. Thus, they can do nothing but threaten. But now threatening will be a little difficult: the RF will have the opportunity, without a vote in the Federation Council to intervene in new conflicts affecting the interests of official allies. We are consciously using the term "official ally" rather than strategic, because, in view of obligations under the Collective Security Treaty Organization Moscow is simply obliged to protect, for example, Armenia or the countries of Central Asia .

An analogous law exists also in the USA, only the permission of the Congress is compulsory there; or at least so it was until September 11, 2001. According to the bill proposed by Dmitry Medvedev, President of the country must be given the sole right to decide on the use of military force abroad with the aim to repel the attacks on the Russian troops stationed out of the country, to repel or avert aggression against another state, to protect the RF citizens, to combat piracy, and to ensure safe navigation.

In July 2006 the RF State Duma approved the amendments to the legislation, which made it possible for the Head of State to decide on the overseas use of the Russian armed forces units and special-purpose subdivisions to combat terrorism against Russia, citizens of Russia or those without citizenship permanently living in Russia. Now the list of emergency situations is supplemented with the "repulsion of aggression" or "aversion of probable aggression against a third country".

It is quite possible that Medvedev's bill is motivated by the fact that Russia doesn't want to get involved in yet another Caucasian war, which has never led to anything good. The situation has already continued for 200 years: Russian troops come, bring certain stability and then depart in the naive belief that Caucasian nations will no longer start a war against each other. However, after some time the situation repeats itself. Perhaps, this explains the presence of Russian permanent military bases in the Caucasus. But there is another aspect of this bill, and not a pleasant one: it can be estimated as an attempt to revive the empire at least within the borders of the USSR. And the "unpleasant" point in all this is that the countries which have received the help of the Russian troops will, roughly speaking, be forced to become the sequential instruments of the federation, which, in principle, is already happening. And lastly, Moscow would not be making sudden moves if the USA was as strong as in the times of even George W. Bush. The global financial crisis made this world power vulnerable, and Russia simply could not but seize her opportunity.