Race for leadership in the region gains strength

PanARMENIAN.Net - Against all this Turkey can only set off her flexible diplomacy, the second largest army in NATO and the dictates of the General Staff, despite the attempts of the Islamists to limit the influence of the army on decision-making. However, after the failure of the Israeli-Syrian negotiations, the mediator of which was the Turkish Foreign Ministry, a kind of lull come over the region, later to be broken by the promulgation of the Protocols on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. But presently the main concern of Turkey is how to solve the "Kurdish problem" with minimal losses. To achieve this goal Ankara is ready to almost everything, including invasion into Northern Iraq. According to the report of the RAND Corporation, Turkey could occupy Kirkuk and Mosul, not paying much attention to the USA, especially since the U.S. withdraws her troops from Iraq next year. Ankara will try to annex Kurdistan and make semblance of the Kurdish autonomy, instantly solving the nearly century-old problem. The question only is whether the neighboring countries will allow Turkey to take such a step. Kirkuk and Mosul are a road leading to oil reserves, which, largely, will not bring prosperity to Turkey, but will help to fortify her position. However, first Ankara would have to face the implacable standpoint of Iran, which would not tolerate anyone superior to her in the region. And here, as a constraint to Ankara will serve the nuclear program. Tehran could also finally decide her relations with Armenia and Russia, thus setting her axis against Turkey, which looks quite weak without the U.S. and Israeli assistance. In this regard, both the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seem no closer than 5 years ago.

On the other hand, Turkey should not now set hopes on the United States; the country is not yet able to combat crisis. Russia, too, in the view of Ankara cannot yet be taken seriously; judging by experts' statements Moscow will not have a policy for the Caucasus or the Middle East for several more years. The RF is still thinking in terms of the collapsed USSR, failing to notice the realities of the new world in which, alas, she occupies no position yet. At least, so believe the Russian experts and now Moscow needs a clear, if not an open policy on regional matters.

The unipolar world has come to an end, but a multi-polar world does not mean an equal game between Russia and Turkey, or say, China. The regional players of growing power now refuse the dictates of superpowers and, in fact, there repeats itself the story of the economic boom of the Asian tigers of the 80s. In the light of still backstage changes, map of the region may radically change in the near future. The South Caucasus countries would be given to someone in return for hegemony or as compensation. However, who will be that someone is still unknown. In all probability, Georgia and Azerbaijan will go split, while Armenia will find herself in even a more difficult situation. Ratification or rejection of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols will not change anything: Armenia will have to follow the rules accepted throughout the world - the strong are the ones to dictate.

Against this background, the position of the "offended Iran", which had not been invited to the meeting of Caspian states, seems somewhat frivolous. Moreover, the President of Russia stressed that no decision on the Caspian Sea would be made without participation of Iran. The reluctance to Baku to see Iran at the table of negotiations on the Caspian Sea is quite justified. Baku wants to unilaterally dispose of all wealth, though knowing that no one will let her do it. Key events in the region will, most likely, begin close to the beginning of October, when the date fixed by the Protocols expires. And much depends on how the entire history of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations will end.