To what extent can the Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorate?

PanARMENIAN.Net - At a press conference in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope that instead of radical extremists Turkey would support peace and would cooperate with Israel to establish and develop relations. "Turkey is an imperative country, and relations with her are important to ensure peace in the region. I hope we are not witnesses of fundamental changes in the way Turkey appeared a year or two ago," he declared.

Ankara also cancelled the military exercises Eagle of Anatolia. According to Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu, the sticking point was the participation of Israeli aircraft in this international air force exercise. "Turkey is reluctant to invite the pilots "who bombed civilians in Gaza," stressed the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

The formal reason for the deterioration of relations was the operation "Cast Lead", but things are much more serious now: recently Turkey has been seeking a getaway from the US influence. The first step was taken still back in 2003, when Ankara refused to allow U.S. troops to enter Iraq. The second step is done now: Prime Minister Erdogan expressed his open support for Iran, which did not add sympathy for Turkey from over the ocean. Even in spite of Barack Obama's determination to review the Bush Administration strategy in the Middle East and Iran, the main priorities of the United States remain unchanged. Also unchanged is the continued support of Israel, which, in essence, runs the risk of remaining alone.

Reduced cooperation with Jerusalem, obviously, should boost the credibility of Turkey among Muslim countries, and the signing of the Protocols with Armenia could simply become a path into the EU. Against the background of this "historic event" European countries are even ready to turn a blind eye to Turkey's growing intimacy with Syria and Iran. As for Israel, she believes that the same Turkish-Armenian peace treaty is harmful for the false parallels it forms in the minds of international peacekeepers: they say it's an example of how two countries can conquer the historical animosity and engage in a constructive dialogue.

The deterioration of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel led to a sharp decline in mutual trade too. Israeli exports into Turkey amounted to only $800 million, in contrast to the 1.3 billion for the first 9 months of 2008.

In short, as we have already stated not once, the change of format in the Armenian-Turkish relations will inevitably affect the region and it has already affected Azerbaijan and Israel. Apart from Egypt, Turkey was the only Muslim country with which Israel preserved normal relations. However, it would be unrealistic to attribute the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations to the agreement with Armenia, but the Protocols probably became the spur, necessary to Turkey to collapse the economic and, very importantly, the military and strategic relations with Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv, the traditional Turkish elite is losing strength. The army no longer has a control over the entire state. The diplomatic elite is pushed aside. Islam has come to replace it. Neo-ottoman ideology is gaining impetus... "Issues on revival of its former greatness are becoming increasingly crucial in Turkey. Turkish foreign policy is increasingly focused on the Middle East region and on neighboring Muslim countries to the detriment of relations with the West and Europe. These are extensive changes, taking place in the Turkish society. The Islamic factor is reinforced by the ideology of Ataturk, which became the basis of the modern Turkish state. In the opinion of the Turks, similar changes occur in Israel: radical religious movements are gaining force, leaving aside the leftist ideology. There are fewer supporters of peaceful conflict settlement. The Right wing has come to power," the article says.