With the help of the OSCE Minsk Group, world powers try to settle the Karabakh conflict

PanARMENIAN.Net - This initiative is timely and, admittedly, somewhat belated. In fact, for the first time the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is going to adopt a law according to which any leader, be him from Armenia or from the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic , is declared a traitor with all its consequences, if he dares to talk about the "return of at least a single region." It is appropriate to remind here that the Azerbaijani soldiers, who were taken hostage by Armenians and then unwittingly returned to Azerbaijan , are sentenced to various terms of imprisonment.

"Through referendum the people of Nagorno Karabakh adopted the Constitution of the Republic, where our borders and territorial integrity are clearly mentioned. I appeal to law enforcement bodies of the NKR and propose to bring to justice all those citizens who cast doubt on our territorial integrity," Armen Sargsyan said in his statement. According to the MP, such an act is not an expression of dissidence or democracy, but an anti-constitutional step.

To all appearances, with the help of the OSCE Minsk Group, world powers rush to settle the Karabakh conflict, and the point here is not only the security of pipelines. At the beginning of the century much was written about the instability that initiated in the Balkans and spread over to Afghanistan . This instability now covers all the problem areas, and the Caucasus is no exception. It turns out that the world community is unable to resolve extended conflicts. In the past 50 years to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict there joined also the Kosovo, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Georgian-Abkhazian conflicts, and there is no guarantee that this number will not grow further. Against this background the regulation of the Karabakh conflict seems quite easy, but in fact it is much more complicated. Let us imagine the following: Armenia (i.e. NKR) agrees to return at least two regions and Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of Nagorno Karabakh. What will follow then? The answer is definite: resignation of the leadership in both countries, internal political instability, which could lead to a civil war and, consequently, to a really new war in Karabakh. The outcome of such a war cannot be foretold by anyone, because the blitzkrieg from the side of Baku will not work, and a prolonged war, however sad it might be, is handy for the Armenian side. As a result, we'll have new losses (perhaps 2-3 times more than the first time), and general instability in the region, which the U.S. and EU will finally give up as a bad job. The situation will be beneficial only to Russia , which is eager to, at any price, return her lost position and the transient influence. To achieve this goal, Moscow is ready to do everything in her power, taking into consideration neither the losses, nor the peoples living on this land. This is the typical Russian policy, which from time to time bears fruit, but is not designed for a lasting perspective.

Nagorno-Karabakh has long arrived at this conclusion, and there remains Yerevan , which is in no way able to determine her position and continues the policy of sitting on two chairs. The notorious complementary policy, as already stated, has completely exhausted itself, but nothing new is thought out for a change.

All this is perfectly well realized by the co-chair states, which try to at least neutralize Russia 's attempts to resolve the Karabakh issue in a way most advantageous to her. The OSCE Minsk Group has rather experienced diplomats, and let no one be caught at sometimes "vague" statements of the mediators. They say what they have to say as a diplomat: one thing in Baku , another in Yerevan and still another, different from those two in Stepanakert.

The Turkish intervention, if it really occurs, will delay regulation of the conflict even further but the reason is not only that she is an interested party. By the way, Ankara , that by word of mouth supports Azerbaijan , can at the most crucial moment change for 180 degrees... Of course, Turkey will never openly support Armenia , but she can at least be neutral. It will happen if Turkey and Iran agree to joint actions in the region. And then Azerbaijan will indeed have great difficulties: it is no secret how Tehran regards the attempts of Baku to appropriate the whole region both ethno-culturally and geographically. No one will tolerate such state of affairs, including Ankara , not to mention the world powers, which bear Azerbaijan solely for her oil and gas. But if an agreement is reached with Iran and Turkmenistan there will be put an end to the ambitions of Baku . If we believe the media, Turkey and the United Kingdom have already reduced the amount of investments in Azerbaijan .

Reverting to the hurriedness in resolving the Karabakh conflict, we should note that hasty decisions have never served as basis for signing peace treaties. An example of this is the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, which came into being after two years of arduous negotiations. The position of OSCE is quite clear: every chairman in power wants to resolve the conflict during his presidency. But it proves unfruitful and it will until there is put an end to the deaf-blind dialogue between the two states.