Munich may be the penultimate stop before the decisive stage in Karabakh conflict settlement

PanARMENIAN.Net - To say that Munich has an ill fame is a sin against the reality. From 1923, when Adolf Hitler started his rise here, to 1938, when Great Britain and France gave Germany the Sudetenland region of the Czech Republic, giving rise to the World War II, Munich has lost her face. A question rises, which of the presidents will share the fate of Czech President Benes and whether it will in fact be so. However, it is also possible that we rush with our deductions and perhaps nothing extraordinary will happen this time either. Sargsyan and Aliyev cannot come to any agreement without Stepanakert; it is what the mediators, the world powers, G8 and all other parties interested in the regulation or final freezing of the Karabakh conflict do not yet understand. However, on the other hand, if the two sides are unable to arrive at an understanding, no Stepanakert will help. Moreover, it may even hinder.

No matter what the Armenian and Azerbaijani politicians and political scientists say, nothing should yet be expected. Considerable breakthrough could have been in Rambouillet, but ... it did not work - apparently the agreement was "incomplete". The Karabakh conflict settlement also lasts so long because of the too many states involved in it. Judge yourselves: co-chairs, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan. And what kind of agreement should be signed? In fact, no one knows, neither the direct participants - the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan - do. The same occurred in 1938 when the Czech President was put before a fact. As we have already noted, it is yet unknown who will benefit from the future peace agreement. Roughly speaking, we don't know whose interests will be sacrificed more by the world powers. As for Russia, Armenia nourishes some, though very little hopes that Moscow will not simply surrender Yerevan, otherwise why should she be keeping her troops on the Turkish border? Definitely we should not rely on the USA or Europe in the person of France, but there might be options. In any case, the real war will begin when Russia is forced to assert her rights in the South Caucasus. And then she will really need Armenia. Let us recall the history: the 11th Red Army entered Armenia from Azerbaijan. However, if Moscow wants, we may face the opposite scenario. But that will be only if the U.S. and the EU provide the RF with field for maneuvers. Once again, it all depends on the set of at first glance meaningless details. But it is especially these details that lead either to war, or to the signing of a peace treaty. There is no third option. Most likely, the Presidents will be given additional time to bargain with each other, and then, as Aliyev says, the mediators' patience will exhaust, and they'll simply force the parties to sign the sought document.

And lastly, it has become a tradition for Official Baku to make loud bellicose statements before summits, behind which usually there stands nothing. Anti-Armenian propaganda is growing in the media, although it was not little as it was. And hardly can all this be designed for internal use only. As always, this hot air leads to nothing. But if the statements of Ilham Aliyev and his Deputy Foreign Minister are indeed given continuation, it will mean that war or peace are not far off.

On November 22, President Woodrow Wilson signed his arbitral award on Western Armenia, which, however, was not ratified by the U.S. Senate. How is it possible no to believe in coincidences after that?