2009 ends with unsettled conflicts and general wariness

PanARMENIAN.Net - Aliyev's behaviour can be explained by the fact that another meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan is scheduled for the end of January. And since almost nobody seriously pulled Aliyev in Munich, the Head of Azerbaijan apparently thought he could continue in the same spirit. It is appropriate to mention here that even the OSCE Minsk Group limited itself to just another statement that was not taken seriously by either of the conflicting parties. It can also be assumed that dissatisfied with European observers' conclusion on election results of the local self-governing bodies, Baku has once again decided to wave a club. It's hard to say what will come of it, but in any case Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh should not so much rely on the world community, which "will not allow" an armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh. The community may simply step aside and watch the outcome of Aliyev's adventures. And the anti-Armenian hysteria in Azerbaijan has almost reached its peak; now only a little excuse may be enough for the 4 March events of the past year to grow into a more serious collision. Reading Aliyev's speeches one comes to the conclusion that they do not change over time, but are only slightly adjusted depending on who the President's statements are addressed to.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili keeps up with his colleague too. The same threats, the same militant rhetoric. And if Ilham Aliyev threatens a small country in comparison with Azerbaijan, for some reason Saakashvili decided that he might "scare out" Russia. Incidentally, both of the adventures ended rather dismally for Baku and Tbilisi.

"The citizens of Georgia must continue the process of reviving the country with one hand, while in the other hand they should hold a gun to defend their country," the Georgian President declared. The only question is whether the citizens of Georgia would like to perform either of these actions. The same is also true about the citizens of Azerbaijan.

As for Turkey, Ankara has always stood out with the adequacy of its behaviour and has never waved a club - or a scimitar - to no avail. The same situation can be observed now - all Turkish ambassadors have been called back to Ankara to clarify the action plan for 2010. A seminar, called by Ahmet Davutoglu, Foreign Minister of Turkey and Architect of Turkey's foreign policy since 2002, is being held under the title "Democracy, Security and Stability: Outlook for 2010 in the world and in Turkish foreign policy". As always, no hysteria, no unfriendly statements addressed, in particular, to Armenia. Everything in civilized and yet dangerous manner.

Unfortunately, Iran stepped in the new year with protest actions and persecution of the opposition. However, in our view, a new revolution should not be expected in 2010; too uneven are the forces: President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keep the country in obedience, despite the desperate attempts of the opposition to change the order in the country.

And finally, our northern neighbour Russia, which has always stood out with its extreme behaviour and lack of a rational regional policy, be it in relation to the Northern Caucasus or the region as a whole. Persistence of imperial thinking hinders the country's decision-making, which could make the country a real superpower. By the way, this kind of thinking is unlikely to be stamped out in the course of two generations.

Armenia enters 2010 not in the worst state; there have been even worse situations. How the country's internal policy will develop, directly depends on the ratification or non-ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols. However, we must admit that the Armenian society attaches too much importance to this fact. After all, this is a game with obvious results that, in all probability, will show up in the month of April. U.S. Congressmen will again start discussing the resolution on the Armenian Genocide recognition, the chances of whose adoption in 2010 are 50-50%. It is quite possible that on the 95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide there will be certain changes in the standpoint of the international community and that of Turkey.

In short, God forbid there be anything extraordinary in 2010. Also let's hope that Ilham Aliyev's statements on his readiness to sacrifice 10 thousand people to return Nagorno-Karabakh will remain only statements.