Will there be signed a second Meindorf?

PanARMENIAN.Net - On the eve of the forthcoming meeting in Moscow, Ilham Aliyev once again burst out into another "program" speech, in which, as always, he turned everything upside down. In particular, Aliyev declared that the document adopted on the regulation of the Karabakh-Azerbaijani conflict at the summit of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Athens "clearly shows the way to conflict settlement." According to the President's interpretation, the document states that "the problem should be solved within the framework of territorial integrity of countries. I believe that the key point is that for the first time Armenia joined this document, signed it, thus admitting settlement of the conflict within the framework of territorial integrity. As for the issue of nations' right to self-determination, it can be solved within the territorial integrity of countries. All international documents support exactly this kind of approach." As a matter of principle, nothing new was said. Azeri authorities say only what is pleasant to the ear of the "Azeri public". However, after Munich, Aliyev a bit damped his warlike disposition, but could not refrain this time, stating that Azerbaijan should further consolidate its position by strengthening the economy and the military potential of the country.

"Our total military expenditures amount to $ 2 billion. We must further intensify our efforts in this direction. Strengthening of the military and army potential in Azerbaijan plays a major role in the negotiation process. I believe that the dynamics recently observed in the negotiation process, i.e. the positive dynamics, is the result of the growing economic, political and military potential of Azerbaijan," Aliyev said.

Well, everyone is allowed to threaten with words and the President of Azerbaijan is no exception. But as we have already mentioned, constant statements about the power of the Azerbaijani army can drive the parties concerned to check whether Aliyev's statements are conformable to reality. Just the year of 1994 may repeat itself, when Heydar Aliyev, in order to deter attack, agreed to a ceasefire, staying away from the security zone around the Republic of Artsakh. It is hard to say where the analogous policy of the current Azeri President will drive Azerbaijan, as Ilham has neither the political influence nor the flair of his father.

But, most likely, "Meindorf-2" will be signed. For some reason, with its statement the Turkish Foreign Ministry intervened in the decision of the RA Constitutional Court on the Protocols, which, by the way, is considered interference in the internal affairs of a state. But this can be explained by the fact that Ankara is going to somewhat depart from Baku, and this statement is nothing but a way to "justify itself". But, in principle, Turkey doesn't have to justify itself before Azerbaijan, and it is quite possible that this statement may put an end to the lingering deaf-blind dialogue.

If Sargsyan-Medvedev-Aliyev meeting really occurs, we can say that Russian-American tandem Lavrov-Bradtke worked. If not, then the concerned parties would find other, weightier leverage to put pressure on Azerbaijan, because in this case, Yerevan is calm and knows that nobody and nothing can ever make her change her position. Will there be a war? It is what mediators want the least and are most concerned to prevent. And though in his recent speech Aliyev did not say anything like "let's go and liberate", we should be ready for everything, and, first of all, for a war.