There is no guarantee that Protocols will be implemented after ratification

PanARMENIAN.Net - But let us suppose that the pressure on Yerevan and Ankara is so strong that the Protocols are ratified after all. Is there any guarantee that they will be implemented? Even if Armenia offers guarantees, her western neighbor will always be laying down conditions, and will finally put the so-called "normalization of relations" on the brakes.

In the meantime, a serious struggle has flared up against the Protocols in Turkish Parliament. As Turkish newspaper Vatan reports, a hot discussion on the Protocols was held in the Commission for External Relations of the Turkish Parliament. And though the discussion was private, it became known that two opposition parliamentary forces - the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party - required returning to the Government the protocols submitted for ratification in response to the decision of the Constitutional Court of Armenia. However, Head of the Commission Murat Mercan noticed that it's an issue to be addressed by the Turkish Government and not by the Commission, though in practice there is no difference whether the Protocols will be frozen in the Parliament or returned to the government.

In this regard, we should not forget about the growing opposition against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). It's no wonder that especially in these days became known the details of a military coup planned back in 2003. Turkish newspaper Taraf published an article, confirming that the country's influential army, which has staged three coups since 1960, drew plans of a coup in 2003. The article in particular says that the plan, codenamed Sledgehammer, envisaged intensification of tension in the country through bombings of two mosques in Istanbul during the Friday prayers and declaration of a state of emergency in the country. Responsibility for the bombings in Istanbul was to be put on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and "Al-Qaeda". Explosions were to be organized also in the Fenerbahce Stadium and sports complex Burhan Felek.

In addition, according to the newspaper, the military planned to deliberately instigate a war-like situation between Turkey and Greece, and in order to achieve their goal, they were ready to bring down their plane over the Aegean Sea, declaring it was allegedly shot down by the Greek Air Force.

According to Turkish media, the almost 5000-page-long plan was agreed at a military meeting in 2003 with participation of 162 active members of "Ergenekon", including 29 generals. It was signed by retired General Çetin Doğan, who was 1st Army commander in 2003, Former Commander of Air Forces General Ibrahim Firtina and retired General Ergin Saygun. The trial over "Ergenekon" has been held in Istanbul since October 2007. The case involves about 200 people: political and public figures, journalists, lawyers, university professors, retired and active servicemen, policemen.

Meanwhile, according to the newspaper Today's Zaman, a return to 1923 would mean almost paralyzing the daily life in Turkey. The document suggested that the armed forces take full control of state institutions, private hospitals, drugs warehouses, customs houses and shopping centers. All printed and electronic media were to be taken under control, while the media outlets belonging to the AKP would be closed.

The armed forces also planned to detain and arrest at least 200 000 people accused of reactionary activities in Istanbul after the coup. The total number of prisoners throughout Turkey was estimated to reach 16 million people.

This is a pessimistic version of events in Turkey, but far not fantastic. The General Staff knows how to lead a coup, and it has done so three times since 1950. All three attempts ended up in the same way - for some time power passed to the military, those loyal to Ataturk's legacy, and was later handed over to civilians. Victory of the Islamist party in 2002 was a defeat for the General Staff, and the latter has not yet been able to resign itself with it. So, Armenian-Turkish Protocols could be a perfect excuse to overthrow Erdogan's government, as far as the military gets support from the nationalist forces, absolutely reluctant to have any kind of relations with the age-old enemy.

An excuse in the form of the unsettled Karabakh-Azerbaijani conflict is very convenient, especially for internal use. It should be noted that Ankara is trying to extend it into the outside world too, without tangible results though. Little time is left till April, only a couple of months. But even the April of 2010 will change little in the regional processes. Just there should be a firm understanding that these processes do not depend on the protocols, boundaries and conflict regulation. They depend on the world powers, among which neither Armenia nor Turkey can be found, no matter how passionately Ankara should wish for it.