Clinton’s visit: more positive than negative

PanARMENIAN.Net - It comes out that the issue of 2 districts was discussed with Erdogan, while that of five with Clinton. In fact, Ilham Aliyev is doing his best to delay the ‘X’ hour, i.e. recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh independence. Sooner or later he will have to do it, because, as we have already mentioned, the constant bellicose statements are irritating the world community; everybody will soon get tired of Aliyev’s endless whining and the world community, represented by co-chair countries, may give him a handle to launch war in Karabakh. What will follow is easy to guess: sanctions, flight of petrodollars, and provision of political asylum at best. He may get the latter from the President of Georgia, but still with reservations. Aliyev will lose his bet on Islamic solidarity, so saluted in Azerbaijan. He may be rejected even by “brother” Erdogan, let alone Israel. In principle, it is the most pessimistic prediction; Ilham Aliyev may simply share the fate of Ayaz Mutallibov, who is now in jail in Moscow. However, Baku continues to threaten war and boasts of military budget.

But during the entire visit of Clinton to the South Caucasus nobody seemed to pay any attention to one nuance, which is very important. Speaking in Tbilisi, the US Foreign Minister clearly stated that “U.S. will not tolerate the occupation of Georgia”. That is, the i's are dotted and the t's crossed. In Baku, Clinton said nothing about the “occupied territories”, which means that the U.S. does not consider the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan violated. But Baku wanted to hear from Clinton about “the occupation of Azerbaijani lands”, whereas she declared that the principal interested party in the Karabakh conflict settlement is the population of Nagorno Karabakh, and that there is no alternative to the peaceful settlement. Most likely, this was the reason that hardly had the U.S. Secretary left Baku, when once again calls for war rang out in Azerbaijan.

As for the possible war, America has already learned a bitter lesson from the Georgian war of August 2008. And the U.S. statements about the “beacon of democracy” and about the desire of Georgia to join NATO are only beautifully-packed words. The same is true about the statements in Baku and Yerevan on the development of democracy in the Southern Caucasus.

During her visit Hillary Clinton visited the Alley of Martyrs and Tsitsernakaberd. Here, too, parity was preserved, but not without an angry retort of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA). The Dashnaks for some reason thought that visiting the Armenian Genocide memorial and calling the visit “private”, Hillary Clinton dishonored the memory of the tragedy victims. Everyone says what they want, but the activity of ANCA sometimes passes the line.

Be that as it may, the visit occurred and the positive side prevailed in it. Now let Baku ponder over the fate of British Petroleum, the ghostly prosperity based on oil, and other unpleasant things.