President Aliyev eager to once again show “what he is made of”

PanARMENIAN.Net - Apparently, Aliyev is eager to once again show “what he is made of” and express dissatisfaction with the signing of the Protocol № 5 on extension of the Russian military base in Armenia. How long this will work is quite a different matter and Aliyev himself knows for sure that his risky ventures will get him in wrong. But, as we have already written, parliamentary elections are round the corner and at least this time Baku wants them to pass more quietly, if it is ever possible in Azerbaijan, and in the territory of the entire former Soviet Union. It is also obvious that Aliyev wants to “prove and show” something to Medvedev. But nobody knows what exactly it is. If he wants to once again present Armenia as an aggressor, then he has obviously confused the front line. If he continues speaking about the “limited patience” of the Azerbaijani people, international community is already so sick and tired of this statement that it is no longer taken seriously. And absolutely ridiculous is the fact that Azeri political scientists and experts, foaming at the mouth, are trying to convince that Russia would not intervene in the conflict, and the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri poses no threat to Azerbaijan. Indeed, it’ll pose no threat and indeed Russia will not interfere, because the Armenian armed forces will themselves thump the aggressor. However, external forces cannot be totally excluded, because as soon as there appears a danger to the security of oil and gas pipelines, Russia, U.S. and EU will intervene to stop the war. It once happened in 1994, when Armenian troops were forcedly stopped on the approaches to the River Kur.

But this time everything is much more serious. In 1994 Azerbaijan was not so tied to petrodollars; Heydar Aliyev did not yet imagine that he was leaving a heavy legacy to his son and thought, as it is typical of all dictators, that he was eternal. By implementing the “Project of the Century”, i.e. the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Heydar Aliyev actually put his country into dependency on transnational energy corporations. It always came to a sticky end, and now, after 14 years of operation, the pipeline is almost idle or it transports Kazakh or Turkmen oil, because Azeri oil is not enough. Aliyev Jr. wanted to do the same with the gas, but it didn’t work as Gazprom bought all the Azerbaijani gas from the root.

But let us revert to the visit of Dmitry Medvedev to Baku. It is clear that Russia has economic interests in Azerbaijan, but the purpose of the Russian President’s visit to Azerbaijan was not only the economy. The main issues were the Karabakh conflict and the extremely delicate issue of the Caspian Sea, which five coastal states are unable to settle. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, each country - Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan – have been unable to share this rich shelf, only accusing each other of exploitation of “foreign” land.

In any case, Medvedev's visit to Baku speaks for the fact that Russia is trying to pursue a balanced policy in the South Caucasus, and so far she has succeeded. In this regard it should be noted that next week co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group visit the region, after each “incident” calling for peace and tranquility. All is right, but Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk’s latest statement that investigation of the incident in Chaylu is not included in his mandate is, to put it mildly, puzzling. It turns out that his mandate includes only monitoring and attending the OSCE meetings...