Iran and Azerbaijan share tense relations, but there’ll be no rupture

PanARMENIAN.Net - Here one can even observe the attempt of Azerbaijan to sit on two chairs at the same time, i.e. not to spoil relations either with Turkey or with Iran. In itself, this desire is praiseworthy: who would not like to live in peace with one’s neighbors? Only the methods of achieving this goal are not very clear, especially in relations with Iran. Judge for yourself: coryphaei of world literature, Persians by origin and writing in Persian, are declared to be Azerbaijani; cultural monuments are appropriated… This list is endless. Baku is already used to appropriating the culture of others, accusing of this, first of all, Armenians, then all the other nations in the region, who have the misfortune to live side by side to the descendants of nomads who shamelessly declare that Armenians and the rest of nations do not know what lavash, kefir and suchlike are. Pure Persian sweets are announced to be Azerbaijani too. The only country which has not yet been invaded by Azerbaijan in this regard is Turkey. The reason is that to quarrel with Ankara is unbeneficial for Baku; she is the only ally left in the region, despite the idea fabricated by the Baku agitprop that the whole world is among Azerbaijan’s friends, except for... Armenia.

But let us revert to Iran. Apparently, Baku is trying to distance itself from Iran, since the latter has become a “rogue state” and only the most powerful can afford to make friends with her. The almost complete dependence on the USA and Russia put Baku in a very awkward position. And then there are the gas pipelines Nabucco and South Stream, which make it very difficult for her to decide which one to give preference to, especially because she is unable to fill up these pipes alone, needing in this issue the help of Iran and Turkmenistan. What Baku is capable of is to blackmail the EU. One needn’t be surprised at this, as it has been long since Azerbaijan mastered the art of blackmail, so far used successfully. Or, at least, it so seems to Baku, which for some reason considers itself the sole possessor of oil and gas reserves in the world. But Azerbaijan will very soon have to sober up, and rather a great role in this issue will play Russia and Iran. Baku understands it too and wants to forestall, namely, to ensure backing from the U.S., so that in case of force majeure, she would have someone to seek protection from. By force majeure a war in the region is meant, no matter who with and what for. Experts believe a war could have started last year, because of the division of the Caspian Region, to whose wealth Baku has claims too. This year, much is talked about the possible military operation of the USA against Iran. And, finally, the war with Nagorno Karabakh is considered a priority in Azerbaijan. However, here too, Iran has “rendered a service”, refusing (in case of war) to let military equipment through its territory for attacks on Karabakh. But these are all too pessimistic predictions, almost as in relations between Turkey and Israel.

There is tension in relations, but there’ll be no rupture. It is simply unbeneficial. According to Armenian expert Sevak Sarukhanyan, the current tension between Azerbaijan and Iran is conditioned by a number of objective factors. “Azerbaijan actively cooperates with the U.S., while Iran supports the Shiite movement in Azerbaijan. However, I believe, it will not come to an open confrontation. Everything will be happening quietly, and each of the parties will be trying to achieve its goals. Iran will never allow growth of Azerbaijan into a regional leader,” Sarukhanyan said.

As for the possibility of war between Iran and the U.S., the Armenian expert believes it won’t break out. “But in case of unfavorable circumstances, Azerbaijan will be on the U.S. side, nominally maintaining neutrality. Baku will provide its airfields to USAF. But still I think there will be no war,” the analyst said.

We’ll only add that almost all the airfields in Azerbaijan, both civilian and military, were brought to the necessary condition for takeoff and landing of heavy aircraft by the Americans themselves.