“Arab spring” plunges Middle East into chaos

PanARMENIAN.Net - Especially active are the oppositions in Azerbaijan and Armenia, despite the presence of the Karabakh conflict, which in case of unhappy turn of events can become the horse on which the opposition of the two countries will ride up to power. And if the Karabakh factor plays a moderating role in Armenian, in Azerbaijan no one takes it into account. And it’s understandable – in order to overthrow the Aliyev clan there are necessary much more powerful means than just the boring phrase “we’ll go and liberate”. The opposition in Baku says almost nothing about Karabakh, fairly believing that it’s impossible to get very far on mere slogans if the majority of the population lives below the poverty line and is so hopeless that the president forgave them the debts for water. And all this is happenings against the background of triumphant reports on GDP growth, powerful army and inexhaustible reserves of oil and gas. Iraq and Libya have oil, too. But nobody is going to protect Syrian opposition; moreover, the U.S. makes everyone believe she is not concerned about Syrian disturbances. Even the UN, despite its inability to do anything constructive, failed to adopt a resolution on Syria. UN Security Council members proved unable to issue a joint statement condemning the violence against the antigovernment forces in Syria. The UN Security Council meeting, that lasted nearly two and a half hours, limited itself to statements about the position of each of the countries.

The Russian representative spoke out against adoption of a tough resolution. “The current situation in Syria, despite the heightened tension and confrontation, does not pose a threat to international peace and security,” said Russia’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Alexander Pankin in his speech.

Earlier, the UK, Germany, Portugal and France had proposed a draft statement, strongly condemning the Syrian authorities. However, the other countries, and especially Lebanon – the only Arab country in the UN Security Council – opposed, and therefore the meeting was decided to be held open.

Most likely, the resolution was not adopted because of Iran, which, according to Western observers, is the country standing behind the “Arab revolutions”. However, it’s nothing but one of the hypotheses among others, for Egypt, Tunisia, Libya are yet secular countries, despite Islam, the proclaimed official religion. Most likely, they are attracted at the Islamism of Saudi clerics. But if we draw an analogy with the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan takes the place of Syria. Even if the weak protest actions of the opposition escalate into more serious anti-government demonstrations, no one will speak against the Aliyev regime. Aliyev is even in a better position – he’s got oil and threat from Iran.

As for Armenia, nobody seems to take her seriously, for purely geopolitical reasons. Under the current circumstances, it is good. And but for the possibility of Turkish expansion – not military, but only economic – one could talk about Armenia as the most peaceful country in the region. The Turkish threat truly exists, and it cannot be fully shrugged off. It is especially Turkey that can become a source of tension in the region because of its close (in words) relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia. Turkish investments in Azerbaijan make up $ 6 billion and it’s a very serious amount for Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, about 700 Syrians crossed the border into neighboring Lebanon, for an emergency situation in the country. Most of the refugees are women and children. And they are all running into Lebanon, a country with unstable home policy, because nobody knows where the confrontation between the opposition and the Baath Party will lead Syria to.