Regard of Epoch and Circumstances - Ground for Military Conflict Settlement

2006 is more favorable for progress in settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict than the previous years. It is not burdened with electoral campaigns, that both parties will have next year. This does not mean at all that an abrupt break is possible. It is merely necessary to maximally use the opportunities provided this year at least to form preconditions for a peace treaty, which may be reached by 2009-2010. As a matter of fact achieving an agreement is not only possible but necessary. I would call signing a peace accord even a forced, imposed peace.

The process of exclusion of the Nagorno Karabakh delegation from the talks on settlement started right after the OSCE Budapest Summit in December 1994. I should remind that highest decisions on the NK were taken exactly at that summit. Then the OSCE considered holding talks via MG co-chairs to be correct.

Azerbaijan initiated exclusion of the NKR, stating that if the NKR takes part in the talks, it should be represented by the Azeri community as well. However the latter could not be a party to negotiations, since it was not a party to conflict, its position being presented by Azerbaijan. Then Baku resumed attempts to expel the Armenian delegations of Karabakh from the talks and succeeded in it by introducing the format of meetings at the level of Foreign Ministers and Presidents, the format that was afterwards called the Prague process. Nevertheless, I believe that participation of NKR representatives in the talks is compulsory.

Concentration of responsibility fully lies on Presidents and this is not correct, as the public opinion of both parties is not ready for mutual and balanced concessions. Whatever the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan sign, they will be accused in betrayal. It is necessary to prepare the public opinion and the MPs role comes out here. Teamwork would be correct to share the responsibility and prepare the societies for compromise. I should mention that not everyone understands that the Bishkek agreement on cease-fire is only a political document without any legal basis.

Heydar Aliyev was a realist. When he raised the issue of Karabakh, he meant only 7 regions without NK. Return of the regions was a priority to him. For his son an agreement with Armenians is more dangerous. To avoid it he Ilham Aliyev keeps on including Nagorno Karabakh in the notion of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
All principles fixed in the UN Declaration of 1948 and confirmed by the Helsinki Agreement are of equal value - this also refers to people's right to self-determination and inviolability of borders. In conflict situations a peaceful agreement is much more important that force.

Moreover, these principles should be developed. The Helsinki Agreement summed up the outcomes of the WWII and outlined the norms of relations between the states. With the existence of various state systems and nuclear weapons any territorial tremor could lead to large-scale hostilities. The 1990-ies brought tectonic changes and force majeur. Collapse of great power like the USSR undermined the magic of the Helsinki formulas.

Heydar Aliyev's successors excite the militaristic campaign in Azerbaijan and this cripples the moral basis of the society, especially of the young generations. President Ilham Aliyev himself accelerates the armament race. It's a pity that the OSCE watches this calmly. If the organization proceeded to the settlement of the conflict it should counteract anything that impedes its peaceful mission.

Extreme points of view are inadmissible; the peculiarity of each conflict should be taken into account. The truth lies in the middle, as usual. There are solutions that can partially be used both here and there. There is a common point of Kosovo and Karabakh conflicts, i.e. collapse of a unified state, in this case the USSR and Yugoslavia; the desire of autonomies to live on their own. However, there are many different points between them as well, which cannot be left out when passing any agreements.

PanARMENIAN.Net posts the reviewed interview granted by Vladimir Kazimirov.