Jewish-American groups may support Armenian Genocide resolution passage in U.S. Congress

PanARMENIAN.Net - Jewish-American groups may reconsider their support for Turkey against Armenian efforts to pass a resolution in the U.S. Congress recognizing the Armenian Genocide during World War I in the wake of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's walkout at the Davos summit last week, but Turkish officials and analysts expect little fallout from decreased Jewish lobby support.



"The Jewish lobby's influence should not be overestimated," said Sedat Laciner, head of the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/USAK). "Many Jewish-American groups already decided to cut support for Turkey in the face of Armenian efforts in 2007," he told.



A major Jewish-American organization, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), reversed its long-held stance in 2007 and said it recognized the Armenian Genocide, although it stood against congressional resolutions to the same effect.



Last week Erdogan stormed off the stage at Davos after an angry exchange with Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel's deadly operation in Gaza last month, which killed more than 1,300 Palestinians, almost half of whom were civilians. The incident sparked comments in the Israeli and Armenian media that a genocide resolution, shelved twice in the past in the U.S. House of Representatives at the initiative of the administration, will this time be inevitable because Jewish groups will no longer be lobbying against it.



Although risks run higher this year for U.S. recognition of the Genocide due to the campaign promises made by President Barack Obama to Armenian-American voters, few in Ankara believe that the decrease in support by the Jewish lobby in the aftermath of the Davos incident will have a major impact on whether or not Obama will uphold his pre-election promises.



One reason for this, says former Foreign Minister Ilter Turkmen, is that Obama has also committed himself to fewer contacts with the lobbying groups in his decision-making processes.



Secondly, says Laciner, what matters is the position of the administration, not the Jewish-American groups. Obama will issue a traditional message on April 24. He is more likely than his Republican predecessor, George W. Bush, to use the term 'genocide' in his message, given his earlier public pledges, but when it comes to a congressional resolution, the U.S. will follow its national interests, according to Laciner.



"When a similar resolution was shelved last year at the House of Representatives, it was the administration, not Jewish lobbying, that made it possible," he said. "The Armenian question is a derivative of overall Turkey-U.S. relations. It pops up every time there is a problem in the course of their ties. It was on the agenda heavily in the past years because of the Iraq crisis in Turkey-U.S. relations and it was shelved eventually because the crisis was overcome and cooperation took root." But even in the event of an April 24 message by Obama mentioning 'genocide,' this may not be devastating for Turks. "The public is accustomed to the idea that Obama might do something that the previous administrations did not do on the Armenian issue. It's been out there since the election campaign," said Laciner, Today's Zaman reports.