Turkey may in fact become a regional power through the UNSC

The vacant seat of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) non-permanent member is meant for a European country, a position Turkey can be considered to hold with great reserve.

October 14, 2008
Ankara has rather definitely realized that the way to a regional power passes not only through cooperation with regional states and a convenient transit for exporting hydrocarbon, but also through membership in the UNSC. Somehow it so happened that the «five-day war» of Mikhail Saakashvili proved to be most advantageous for Turkey, and, as a result, it can now run for a seat in the UN. The United Nations has been making hardly any decision recently, and even if it made, its decisions were all based on strange interpretations of basic principles of the international law.

European Union consolidates its position in the region

Neither France, nor Germany will aggravate relations with Russia because of a small country, which, however sad it may sound to Saakashvili, is of no strategic value.

October 11, 2008
The European Union is slowly but steadily restoring its once lost position towards peacemaking and establishing order in conflict regions. In short, it is trying to replace the USA, which being presently busy with the financial crisis and pre-election presidential fever is not in the mood for regulating conflicts. Inability to cope with the Talibs in Afghanistan, the failed attempt to establish democracy in Iraq and complete absence of ideas of restoring peace in the Caucasus resulted in the opportunity for the EU to begin its own game. The succeeded «Sarkozy-Medvedev» plan of settling the Georgian-Ossetian conflict in essence became the first real signal indicating that European politicians have ceased to look back at the USA and are eager to prove that problems can also be solved in the Old World, with their own strength.

Oil determines «strategic allies»

For the second time throughout its history Nagorno Karabakh found itself a hostage in the clutches of the Caspian oil, and it is quite natural that present Russian Government shouldn't act against its interests.

October 9, 2008
The latest interview of RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seems to have sobered up part of the Armenian society, who still cherished hopes for a fair settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the help of Russia. Moreover, the RF Foreign Minister made it blunt-clear that regulation is practically impossible without Turkey's assistance. In the light of the latest regional events Lavrov's statements are quite explicable: cunning as the high-ranking diplomat may be, Russia did not aim to protect residents of South Ossetia, but restored its power in the Caucasus.

Georgia is on the verge of partition by "historical borders"

In fact what we have now is a totally new Georgia. If we trace the country's development since 1991 it becomes clear that Tbilisi has been experiencing nothing but losses.

October 7, 2008
As a rule, misinformation is spread with the particular aim of exploring circumstances, shaping a certain public opinion, and if everything goes according to the plan, information proves to be true. Another advantage of misinformation is anonymity, which under certain conditions may turn into an alibi: we never said it and we know nothing… There was an information leak the other day. If we trust Turkish and Azerbaijani informative sources, Baku and Ankara are going to stiffen pressure on Georgia in order to achieve federalization of the country.

Armenia should make it clear what the USA, Russia, Turkey and even the EU promise her for «model behaviour»

In fact, Armenia is offered temporary economic dividends, which in the future will simply bring to a loss of independence, not to mention the country's sovereignty.

October 4, 2008
Baku demonstrates hyper-nervousness in connection with the latest developments in the region, particularly because of the consolidation of Turkey's position after Mikhail Saakashvili's unsuccessful blitzkrieg, which "guaranteed" regional reshaping for all and retirement for Saakashvili himself. Azerbaijani political analysts and experts began to comment out exactly every word uttered by Armenia, never doubting accuracy of the received information and quoting some unauthorized Armenian mass media.

End of the unipolar world?

US ambitions multiplied at Russia's weakening and at «colour revolutions» resulted for America in fatal perception of self-exclusiveness.

September 30, 2008
Rejecting a $700 billion bailout package meant to save the financial market the US Congress made another step towards driving the unipolar world into the grave. Judging from the dramatic course of events the USA is losing its status of a superpower in the financial world, and, consequently, its political authority. The current situation is compared to the Great Depression of 1929, when stock markets plummeted, and ruined bankers jumped out of the skyscraper windows as Don Corleone would put it "after lack of imagination".

Pre-election situation in Azerbaijan is somewhat like that of the US

The improper role of Ankara in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in isolation of Armenia on Baku's advice had its dirty effect, and Abdullah Gul's visit to Yerevan was not evidence of good life, just like the New-York meetings.

September 27, 2008
As usual, the latest meeting between the heads of foreign policy departments of Armenia and Azerbaijan aroused plenty of comments in both sides. Meanwhile, the current meeting in New-York became a topic of open discussions because of the Turkish Foreign Minister's presence at the meeting. For some reason Azerbaijan suddenly spoke of "the approval of Armenia to Turkey's participation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation", while Turkey speaks of "old enemies entering into negotiations". In spite of all this Armenia keeps silent and avoids the topic through the statements of the Foreign Minister and the President, which in the current situation sound not so frank.

Most recent argument of the super-states

The right of the strongest has been prevailing in international community lately; it has replaced both the principle of territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination.

September 25, 2008
The principle of territorial integrity of a state is gradually becoming the most recent argument in the dispute of competence to recognize the self-declared republics in the post-Soviet territory. Appealing to the world community and playing on different approaches and contradictions between the chief players, mini-mother countries of the former USSR are trying to confirm their right to this or that territory. Especially persisting in the verification of this fact are Azerbaijan and Georgia. The issue became even more painful after Kosovo's declaration of independence, as South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria and Nagorno Karabakh have no less authority and claims for recognition of their independence than the Albanians of Kosovo had.

No great expectations should be anticipated from the meetings Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey due in New-York

Unfortunately, the UN is not a place to resolve arguments and conflicts; it is just a place where state representatives meet to discuss what they cannot converse over in any other territory.

September 23, 2008
In the 63rd session of the United Nations General Assembly the regional states expect to resolve some problems related to the latest events in South Osssetia and Georgia. With the active Turkish diplomacy there can be set hopes on normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations. Moreover, the trilateral meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan due on September 25 will apparently be held under US patronage, and most likely the United States will make every effort to have no Russian representative at the meeting.

Is Washington seeking a substitute for Saakashvili?

Americans are more alarmed about bankruptcy of their banks rather than about distant Georgia, which they had initially taken for the US State of Georgia.

September 20, 2008
Forty days after Saakashvili's «five-day» war the world experienced changes that may serve as a basis for establishment of new and reconsideration of already existing relations on a global scale. What is most important in Georgian President Saakashvili's «achievements» is the rapid stir-up of Turkey, which has made a powerful regional player of herself and in case fortune smiles, it may take up the role of a super-state in the Islamic world.
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