Increase of Military Expenses in Region Thoughtless Squandering of Funds

The most important task of the Armenian Armed Forces is to prevent any violation of the ceasefire established in 1994. The Azeri Armed Forces have the same task, added to rearmament, multiplication of military potential in an aspiration to change the status quo in their favor with a final purpose to restore the territorial integrity so much spoken about by the military and political leadership of the neighbor state. I will not reveal a secret by saying that the Armenian army performs its main task while the Azeri side confines to the first part only. The fact is that over 12 years the ceasefire is maintained without any dividing force. Parity has been established and the Armenian side is not interested in change of military-geographical and military-political status quo in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict zone while the Azeri side doesn't possess sufficient power to change the status quo unfavorable for it.

These are two mini-soviet armies. Here function the same soviet general regulations and laws, the same closed regime ruling out any civil control. The same huge expenses and absence of reserve training. As a matter of fact these two armies are "deeply soviet" and are efficient to the extent their soviet prototype was.

The recent 12 years showed that the constant growth of military expenses in both states is accompanied by the improvement of numerical characteristics of the Armed Forces. The military expense totaling in over 3% of the GDP become a burden for the population. The reasonable number of the military is 1 per cent of the population of the state. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan crossed the limit long ago. The European Union started speaking of the armament race in the South Caucasus. Taking into account the living conditions in our states and the gap between the potential and reality one can easily conclude the variance of the tasks and needs of the region. As for the material and technical equipment and military training, these directly depend on the budget funds.

Progress is conditioned by the overcoming of "childish diseases" like lack of discipline, inexperience of the command staff and so on. The spirit is the constituent of any army. The Armenian army experiences fewer problems, since it does not purpose any aggressive goals, unlike the Azeri one. However, military spirit cannot be bought or raised by a military hysteria in small countries like Azerbaijan and Armenia living neither in peace nor war during a long time. To be short, the sharp increase of the military expenses in the region is a thoughtless squandering of the funds needed for conduction of reforms and resolution of social problems.

The Armenian side has no motive to apply force and resume war. Azerbaijan is another matter. However, I think that in the foreseeable future our neighbor will lack resources to start war and reach the goals in a blitzkrieg. I would like to underscore that I consider military aspects maximally and even keep aloof of the political constituent, which is a priority in the 21st century. Anyway, a war is the continuation of politics, but not vice versa. Taleyran used to say that war is a too serious business to entrust it to military. In my opinion, the resolution of problems is at the political level. Armies are important but "we have tanks and need no brain" formula will not do.

I think that despite the difference in rhetoric both sides understand the impossibility of resumption of hostilities. The international community has no intention to tolerate the situation any longer and the OSCE Minsk Group is working at the details pressing on the sides in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to sign a framework agreement.

Security is a demand of the time and the actual independence of the South Caucasian states decreases. The first steps were worked out at the example of Eastern and Central Europe. It's time to realize that the membership in the EU is unconceivable without peaceful settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, without democratization, regional integration and NATO membership. The first step should be the formation of a regional organization of neighbor states. This, certainly, should be started with prevention of incitement of hatred between the nations. Second is the close cooperation with the NATO and bringing of the Armed forces in correspondence with the NATO standards. Third is the establishment of proper civic control over the army. This is the minimal complex of tasks that were fulfilled by all the states of 'new' Europe that became NATO member states. I think the three South Caucasian states can achieve these goals during next 5-7 years. Political will is essential for it. Not army but sensible foreign policy is the guarantor of security for the small South Caucasian states.