“Arab Spring” threatening to escalate into “Arabic catastrophe”?

PanARMENIAN.Net - Turkey shares borders with almost all the countries in the region, which makes additional difficulties. Only the border with Syria, which has long resisted the “introduction of democracy” is 800 kilometers, and the main population residing along the perimeter on both sides is Kurds. And it’s quite understandable that Erdogan should fear of splitting of Syria along ethno-religious lines. The major concern of Turkey is not the Armenians, but the Kurds, who are almost ready to establish an independent Kurdistan, another American project. On the other hand, it’s a bit difficult to say how interested the current owner of the White House is in this idea that occurred to America 20 years ago. An independent Kurdistan would split not only Syria, Iraq and Iran but also Turkey. The new state in the Near East would become a hotbed of tension not only for the region, but also for the world powers that might find themselves face to face with a truly exploded region, and no one would know what to do.

Turkish government is well aware of all this, but it may so happen that even she might prove unable to drive the processes in the desired direction. Since the very beginning of riots in the Arab world Erdogan has tried to play the role of a peacemaker, but soon they made it clear to him that he shouldn’t interfere in others’ affairs. So it was in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria.

In this Middle East game great is the role of Israel, with whom Turkey deteriorates relations day by day. The most recent incident was the demarche of the government members, who refused to come to a reception at the Israeli embassy in Ankara on the occasion of the 63rd anniversary of establishing the State of Israel. After the reunification of Hamas and Fatah and weakening of the regime on the border of Egypt and the Gaza Strip, Israel will have to do its best to keep the country within the borders of 1967. In this case it’s a bad idea to pin hopes on the U.S. – Barack Obama is “famous” for “disappointing” his allies. But for the Jewish lobby in the U.S., Israel would have suffered the fate of Egypt. But all these are temporary processes. Most important is the excess of Islamization and radicalization of the region, which is not far off. And Turkey, intentionally or unintentionally, is directly related to it. The policy of “zero problems with neighbors” can certainly be realized if there are no neighbours at all, but one great Caliphate or the Ottoman Empire.

Meanwhile, former member of Lebanese Parliament Nasser Kandil believes that Syria is exposed to foreign conspiracy which seeks to destabilize the unity and security of the country. Nasser Kandil said Syria is paying the price for her principled stance and support for all Arab resistance groups in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq. He noted that Syria does not veil her position against hostile Zionist and western plans on the Middle East.

And last week, in an interview to Western media Turkish Prime Minister announced that Ankara had begun applying pressure on the Syrian president for reforms even before a wave of uprisings began in Arab countries. Erdogan also noted that “it is still premature to say whether President Bashar al-Assad should quit now”. Turkish Prime Minister expressed hope that the Syrian president, despite the “delay”, would make the necessary changes in the country. A few days earlier, appearing on television, Erdogan referred to the situation in Syria, saying President Bashar al-Assad should not ignore his people’s demands for reform. He condemned the use of force by the government to disperse peaceful demonstrations and expressed concern that the escalating conflict in Syria could result in massive bloodshed. Such accusations and statements from the lips of a man brutally trampling on Kurdish rebels, sounds at least strange.