Karabakh conflicts sides should agree to OSCE MG proposals

Peter Semneby:

Karabakh conflicts sides should agree to OSCE MG proposals

PanARMENIAN.Net - The European Union's attention to the South Caucasus tends to increase. The recent report on Karabakh settlement issued by the International Crisis Group as well as the shaky political situation in Georgia triggered a mixed reaction in the EU and, as result, a greater attention to the states engaged in the European Neighborhood Policy. PanARMENIAN.Net requested EU's Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Mr Peter Semneby to comment on the current situation in the region.
How would you comment on the ICG recent report?

I back the ICG recommending that the sides in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict should agree to the proposals at the table. I suppose that the forthcoming presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan should not be used for dragging out the settlement process. The report mentions that the EU possesses tools of influence in the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy. However, we can help with confidence building measures only. The sides are supposed not to use the EU as means of pressure for the conflict resolution. Our position is unchangeable: the Karabakh problem is being settled by the OSCE Minsk Group.

Do you concede resumption of hostilities possible?

Resumption of war is possible unless an agreement is signed. The situation may seem stable but incidents at the frontline occur almost every week. This is very dangerous, since they may provoke military operations. The EU doesn't have a mandate to oversee the situation and will not have such in the near future.

Can the boost of defense budget provoke a war?

We are concerned about increase of Azerbaijani and Armenian defense expenses. Azerbaijan develops rapidly and feels strong. However, it doesn't mean that it can resolve the conflict by use of force or economic pressure. Azerbaijan's hopes are exaggerated. Armenia is also developing and the situation that seemed stable a coupe of years ago can change. I think there is a need to reconsider the state of affairs.

How do you assess the current crisis in Georgia?

I arrived in Yerevan from Tbilisi and wouldn't like to speculate on the issue. The situation seems to get stabilized. The President appointed new Prime Minister and a dialogue with opposition was established. However, tensions remain and both sides should be cautious.

Hashim Thaci, whose party won the elections in Kosovo said if he is elected Prime Minister, parliament would declare independence immediately after a December 10 deadline for international mediation efforts. What consequences can the move have?

I am hopeful that proclamation of Kosovo independence will not destabilize the Balkans. The European

Union supposes that Kosovo is a unique phenomenon. This refers to all unsettled conflicts, by the way. Each conflict has its history and specific character and each should be handed an appropriate solution in accord with norms of international law. The Kosovo resolution should not influence on settlement of other conflicts but it will certainly originate hopes and apprehensions.

You have already spoken of creation of atmosphere of trust between the sides in the Karabakh conflict. How does the EU see the process?

I am confident that it is possible to establish trust relationship between Armenians and Azeris. I do not know when the problem will be resolved finally but it is very important for the people to keep in contact. You will always live side by side, this is the reality. It's abnormal and dangerous when neighbor nations do not communicate. Generations not aware of each other have grown up and it will be harder and harder to come to understanding.

The same I can say as regards the Armenian-Turkish relations. The situation is similar but more can be done here. Turkey should be more open. As to Armenia, it can accept Turley's proposals which do not touch sore spots. It would be easier if Turkey joined the EU but membership is a long process and no one knowns when it will be completed.
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