RAND Corporation: Armenian Genocide resolution passage "will do nothing to foster Turkish-Armenian reconciliation"

PanARMENIAN.Net - Faced with a difficult dilemma due to the ongoing closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, the United States should underscore its strong support for Turkish democracy, according to a report by a prominent U.S. think tank.



In developing its position the U.S government needs to tread lightly lest perceived interference in Turkey's internal affairs provoke a counterproductive nationalist reaction, advised the recently released report by the Pittsburgh-based RAND Corporation.



Sponsored by the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, the report, entitled "The rise of political Islam in Turkey", was penned by Angel Rabasa and Stephen Larrabeethe. It examines the ascent of the AKP to power and discusses four possible scenarios for Turkey's future and their implications for American foreign policy.



According to Rabasa and Larrabee, the United States has a strong stake in a stable, democratic Turkey and in the success of a political model that showcases the coexistence of a ruling political party rooted in Islam and secular democracy. "An unstable Turkey wracked by internal dissension would make it even more difficult to stabilize Iraq and enhance regional stability in and around the Persian Gulf," said the report.



The U.S. approach would be more likely to be effective if it were carried out in coordination with the European Union, the report continued. Given the sensitivity of the issue of Turkish membership in Europe, the U.S. should quietly support Turkey's EU membership bid behind the scenes and avoid overt pressure. At the same time, Washington needs to recognize that Turkish membership in the EU would have an impact on American-Turkish relations in the long run given that Turkey's foreign policy would be likely to become more Europeanized over time, according to the researchers.



"Turkey's growing interests in the Middle East are likely to make Ankara wary about allowing the United States to use its military facilities for Middle East and Persian Gulf contingencies, except where such operations are clearly perceived to be in Turkey's interest, predicted the report. The United States cannot, therefore, automatically count on being able to use Turkish bases for its operations and should look for alternatives as well," said the report's chapter dedicated to Incirlik



As to the Armenian Genocide issue, RAND Corporation supposes that if the H.Res.106 "were to pass, the Turkish government could come under domestic pressure to take retaliatory action, possibly curtailing American access to Incirlik and other Turkish facilities. The passage of a resolution recognizing World War I-era killings of Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans as genocide will do nothing to foster Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, maintained the researchers, urging the executive branch to work closely with the congressional leadership to keep the issue from poisoning relations with Ankara."



The Corporation also demanded more U.S. pressure on Iraqi Kurds. "The United States needs to deal more resolutely with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, terrorist attacks against Turkish territory, according to the report, which added that closer military and intelligence cooperation with Ankara against the PKK needs to be followed up by other concrete steps. In particular, the United States needs to put greater pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government, or KRG, to crack down on the PKK and cease its logistical and political support of the group," the report said.



However, the report added that the PKK threat cannot be resolved by military means alone. "While a tough anti-terrorist program is an important component of a long-term strategy to defeat the PKK, it must be combined with social and economic reforms that address the root causes of the Kurdish grievances. In addition, America should encourage Turkey to enter into a direct dialogue with the KRG leadership. There can be no long-term stability on Turkey's southern border without accommodation of the KRG. This does not mean that Turkey should recognize an independent Kurdish state, but it does need to reach an understanding with the KRG, whose cooperation is essential to reduce the PKK threat," the report said.
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