Turkey and Russia new regional superpowers

PanARMENIAN.Net - Nearly a century after the Ottoman Empire's massacre of about one million Armenian Christians in 1915, Turkey's president, Abdullah Gul, and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, have reached a breakthrough in their immensely delicate negotiations, Judy Dempsey of The New York Times writes in Stakes High in Armenia-Turkey Talks.



"Last week, they agreed to a road map that could lead to the resumption of diplomatic relations and the reopening of the borders. If the agreement succeeds, it will have huge significance for the region. If so, the powers that will dominate in the region will be neither the United States nor the E.U., which have done little to encourage this peace process. Instead, it will be Turkey and Russia — two former empires — that are attempting to re-establish their influence in a region rich in gas and oil and an important transit route to Europe. The biggest winner could be Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister and leader of the pro-Islamist Justice and Development Party," Dempsey writes.



"But under the influence of the army, successive Turkish governments have made it a focal point of national pride not to admit to genocide, even making it a crime to speak of the Armenian massacre as such. Mr. Erdogan already had to take a very big step to agree to establish a special historical commission with Armenia so that this issue will not derail the diplomatic efforts.



With Turkey's shift in foreign policy, Azerbaijan is becoming nervous. It fears that Turkey and Armenia would normalize relations without resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The rewards are big. Azerbaijan would regain control of most of its territory and Russia would be in a stronger position to seek an energy deal with Azerbaijan — even though Azerbaijan is negotiating with the E.U. to supply gas to Europe's Nabucco pipeline. Russia too could become the guarantor of any peace agreement by sending Russian peacekeeping troops to Karabakh, bolstering its influence in the region. Finally, a normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey would also weaken Georgia, which Russia invaded last August. Once the borders are reopened, Armenia could become a new transit route for energy and other goods, thus marginalizing Georgia.



For the United States and Europe, the result of this entire process could be ambiguous. The volatile southern Caucasus, a breeding ground for corruption, drug and human trafficking and miserable governance, could become much more peaceful and prosperous. But unless Europe and the United States embrace the big changes taking place in Turkey, they could lose much influence, as Turkey and Russia, the new regional superpowers, return to their historic spheres of influence," the article says.