Russian-Georgian war can start after July 6?

PanARMENIAN.Net - On June 29, Russian troops begin massive military exercises on Georgia's borders as well as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Kavkaz 2009. The exercises are planned to end on July 6, when Obama lands in Moscow. The troops will be deployed and fully ready to go into action for at least several weeks after July 6, which apparently makes July the most dangerous month in the troubled South Caucasus.



There are other outstanding contentious issues. Kremlin-connected Russian political commentators have been stating, "Obama's visit to Moscow can only be successful if he publicly announces a 20-25 year moratorium on Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO."



There are speculations that the exercise is meant to attract attention to Georgia's fruitless attempts to join NATO.



In a recent opinion piece in The New York Times, three former diplomats called on the United States to lead efforts to prevent a "new tragedy" in Georgia. They argue that the West must step in to prevent a fresh escalation of violence.



Some Georgian politicians, including President Saakashvili himself, point out to the signs of new tensions.



It's worth mentioning that Russia banned international observers from the exercise, which will enable 8.5 thousand servicemen, dozens of helicopters, 450 infantry fighting vehicles and 250 artillery pieces.



Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev thinks resumption of Russian-Georgian hostilities is unlikely. "It will not happen if Saakashvili doesn't resort to unconcealed provocation," he said.



According to him, a military conflict in Georgia is possible "because of a separatist movement in Javakheti, where numerous Armenian Diaspora lives."



Paata Davitaya, Georgian parliament vice speaker, thinks that Moscow can provoke Nagorno Karabakh scenario in Samtskhe Javakheti.



Meanwhile, colonel general Leonid Ivashov insists that was in Javakheti is unreal. "I am confident that Russia will never wage war against Tbilisi," he said, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.