Turkish leadership does its best for international recognition of the Armenian Genocide to be on the increase

PanARMENIAN.Net - The fact that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was not invited to the Global Summit on Nuclear Safety is rather a symbolic phenomenon, no matter what interpretations are given in Baku on this regard. It is apparent that neither Turkey nor Armenia, let alone Georgia are nuclear powers, but they received an invitation from the President of the United States, while Azerbaijan with its advertised hydrocarbon reserves remained “on her own”. Most apparently, neither will the Nabucco project be realized, but even if it is, it won’t be the way Aliyev dreams but the way the U.S. and Europe like it. In this regard Turkey realistically measures what is happening in the region and openly says she will not participate in the project, the more so because there is no money yet. One can predict what Obama will offer Erdogan and Sargsyan in exchange for ratification of the Protocols. But the U.S. president, in our opinion, has left out of account one important detail: Turkey has someplace to step back, Armenia has not. Erdogan may refuse to support Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but the President of Armenia cannot renounce the process of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, because this process is not in his hands. Neither is it possible to make Armenia give up the Diaspora, not to mention Karabakh. But if the Turkish Premier agrees to stand aside in the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (and everything is coming to this, despite the tone of the Azerbaijani media), the President of Armenia will hold the cards.

Baku now has only a little chance to reclaim the attention of the international community, which, however, would be very dangerous for the Aliyev clan. In order to achieve this, she “just” has to shift from threats to business and try to launch a war. What will follow is easy to guess: Turkey and Iran will immediately dissociate themselves from their inadequate neighbor; the world powers will watch the “valiant Azerbaijani army” suffering losses and will intervene only when they see that continuation of the war is directed against their own interests. In short, the situation of 1993-94 will repeat itself, when promotion of the Karabakh army was stopped for it was already “a squeezed orange”. But it’s not only about the war or about the attempts to start it. Another Sword of Damocles hanging over Baku is the Caspian status. It is common knowledge that the oil which the Aliyev clan is so persistently trying to pass off as their own, in fact lies in the Turkmen and Iranian sites. And if Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan finally agree on partition of the Caspian Sea, Aliyev will then finally lose his last trump.

Meanwhile, Erdogan is once again trying to assure his “brothers” that he will not leave them in trouble, Davutoglu is going to meet the Armenian Diaspora, and the President of Armenia is preparing for a visit to the USA. Everyone is busy with their own job. And it is of absolutely no importance whether Barack Obama will utter the word ‘genocide’ in his annual April 24 address to the Armenian Americans. It can change nothing, since the current Turkish leadership has done its best to ensure that international recognition of the Armenian Genocide is on the increase. This can be recorded in the archive of Turkish diplomacy, which, like a sly fox, has been caught into a trap with all paws.