Which is most important for today’s NATO – Afghanistan or Iran?

PanARMENIAN.Net - And for some reason no one remembers the British, who after a long and exhausting war at the beginning of the past century declared that Afghanistan is impossible to defeat. They said it and left. Then came the Soviet Union, ready to pay any price for the victory against the Afghans. But they failed too. Since 1979 the country was lost in chaos. And then stepped in the NATO, i.e. the U.S., and the chaos became uncontrollable despite the presence of President Karzai, who on the one hand supports the U.S., on the other is against it. So, the Afghan problem has to be somehow settled at the summit, or roughly speaking, either the way to narcotics must be blocked, or the latter must be brought under control.

But if the Afghan problem has already become a kind of a home assignment quite impossible to complete, it is much more difficult for NATO to deal with its new problem, Iran. Iran is a country more predictable and stronger than Afghanistan and the Ayatollahs’ regime, no matter the world likes it or not, is quite stable. One way or another, Iran will have a nuclear bomb, be it this year or next, and the development of military industry may present NATO with the fait accompli that Iran is well-armed and can give an adequate response in case of attack. That is why Lisbon will put pressure on Turkey so that she installs in her territory the anti-missile defense system as a shield for Israel, to call a spade a spade. Iranian missiles will not reach the United States, but they will reach Israel. That’s the whole calculation of the Alliance. However, Turkey stands on the way of the agreement. Turkish media reported on November 6 that Ankara will agree to deploy the anti-missile defense elements of NATO on its territory, if her three conditions are met. First, the Turkish authorities advocate the creation of NATO and not American missile defense system. Secondly, it must be aimed at ensuring the security of all member states of NATO, and, thirdly, it must not turn Turkey into a flank country, as it was at the time of the “Cold War”.

Turkey is in her usual role - threats, blackmail, requirements to get the impossible, but finally she gets what she wanted at the beginning. Most likely, the Alliance will come to an agreement which, as it was the case with the OSCE, will remain just a piece of paper. Iran will be improving her military power, so that by spring, when planning a military expedition NATO completes the aerodrome in Kutaisi, Tehran could be booted and spurred. And obviously Iran succeeds. And we, i.e. Armenia, will have a military base on Mount Ararat, which will threaten Armenia and the Armenian people.