RUSSIA'S ACCELERATIVE SCENARIO IN SOUTH CAUCASUS BROKE UP IN 2004

PanARMENIAN.Net - "Rose revolution" in Armenia can cause a lot of losses, much more losses than there were in Georgia… So far the accelerative scenarios of Transcaucasian states have opposed Russia's inertia in the South Caucasus; now one should proceed from the fact that the situation has changed", Russian political scientist S. Markedonov writes in his article "Not to concentrate but act" published in Diplomatic Express, the appendix of Nezavisimaya Gazeta Russian newspaper. The passing year can go down in history as a crucial one. Just in 2004 Russia's accelerative scenario in the South Caucasus finally collapsed, the author considers. The scenario was based upon "the absence of military strategy in the Caucasian direction, upon the perception of the former soviet republics as Russia's "foreign political property", orientation at the pro-soviet ideology, rhetoric, political symbols and forces and reduction of the "Caucasian policy" to the preservation of the status quo formed in early 1990-ies". Russia, S. Markedonov says, demonstrated unwillingness to constructively work with the opposition and give its promising candidates access to the power. "At the same time it is necessary to speak of the opposition, which has chances for political success, but not of some phantom figures like Igor Georgadze in Georgia or Ayaz Mutalibov in Azerbaijan", he continues. However, refusal from the dialogue with the real opposition, accusations of its leaders of "collaboration with international imperialism" are pregnant with big losses. If the opposition wins Russia will have to deal with the rivals, whom she herself drove into a corner thus losing all the serious instruments of influence. When touching upon Armenia the Russian political scientist noted: "It is still not late if not to take control over the opposition but at least "develop" it.