September 6, 2005 - 09:52 AMT
AZERI EXPERT ON NK: ALIYEV DEPENDS ON WEST OPINION
"I do not consider that the current "Prague process" will result in a specific outcome, head of the Department of Conflictology and Migration of the Institute of Peace and Democracy Arif Yunusov stated in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net. "Our peoples were suggested various options. And they now propose a recurrent one that can be summed up as follows: try to unite two latest options - the package one with the stepwise one," he added. "On the one hand, Armenia returns 5 occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh (Lachin and Kelbajar regions will still remain under Armenians' control). Refugees return to these regions, communication resumes between the parties to conflict. The most important issue - the NK status - will be decided in 10-15 years via a referendum. Now discussion between the parties concerns technical matters: when to hold the referendum (in 10, 15, 25 or 50 years), who will take part in it, etc. However, a general agreement is available," A. Yunusov remarked. "Why I am pessimistically predisposed? The point is that both the Presidents and our peoples are hostages of the sentiments and views already available, as well as the geopolitical situation in the region. People in Armenia are fully convinced that the Karabakh issue is in fact solved, one merely has to wait for the time when both the international community and the Azeri people themselves "ripen" to understand that fact. I.e. the fact that NK should be part of Armenia or become an independent state. Being part of Azerbaijan in any form is out of question. Thus, expecting compromises from Kocharian is not serious," the political scientist stated. As of Azerbaijan, to the contrary, A. Yunusov added, "the discontent over the talks and the number of war advocates to liberate Karabakh increase." However, Azeri authorities depend on the West and first of all Americans very much. The large money invested in Caspian oil prevents the West from considering the settlement of the Karabakh issue by force. I.e. Ilham Aliyev depends on the opinion of the West, the Azeri expert emphasized. "Besides, Azeri authorities consider that in a year huge oil dollars will flow to Azerbaijan and the Armenian economy will be in a deplorable condition in a few years. Thus, one even does not have to fight - Armenia will fall to your feet itself," Yunusov stated. In his words, strong discontent with the Minsk Group is available in the Azeri society, as well as the hard political and economic situation in the country (Azerbaijan - editor's note). Thus Aliyev has to maneuver." "Like Kocharian he does not want to resort to serious talks, as these demand considerable concessions. This is pregnant with losing popularity among one's own people. Both the authorities and the peoples are not ready to compromise today yet," Yunusov summed up.