Situation in South Caucasus is stable and should remain so
"The situation in the South Caucasus is, for now, stable and should remain so, barring an unforeseen renewal of conflict over Nagorno Karabakh or other disputed territories, which could have deeply destabilizing consequences for the region," Mr Cory Welt, Deputy Director and Fellow of Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net.
"One concrete question involves the future of Georgia and NATO. Whether Georgia enters into a Membership Action Plan with NATO in the near future will have important consequences for its relations with its neighbors, most of all Russia. What we don't know, however, is whether a more realistic prospect of NATO membership for Georgia will pull Azerbaijan and even Armenia closer to the organization and whether such a situation would be tolerable to Moscow. On the other hand, if Georgia's integration with NATO stalls, this will also have a considerable impact on the region but exactly how is uncertain. Optimists suggest that Georgia's relations with Russia would improve, leading to a resolution of territorial conflicts and an increased atmosphere of stability in the region. Pessimists, however, are certain that this would only encourage Russia to continue keeping all three states of the Caucasus in a state of political and economic dependency," he said.
Full text of the interview
"One concrete question involves the future of Georgia and NATO. Whether Georgia enters into a Membership Action Plan with NATO in the near future will have important consequences for its relations with its neighbors, most of all Russia. What we don't know, however, is whether a more realistic prospect of NATO membership for Georgia will pull Azerbaijan and even Armenia closer to the organization and whether such a situation would be tolerable to Moscow. On the other hand, if Georgia's integration with NATO stalls, this will also have a considerable impact on the region but exactly how is uncertain. Optimists suggest that Georgia's relations with Russia would improve, leading to a resolution of territorial conflicts and an increased atmosphere of stability in the region. Pessimists, however, are certain that this would only encourage Russia to continue keeping all three states of the Caucasus in a state of political and economic dependency," he said.
