How serious are Ilham Aliyev's threats?

PanARMENIAN.Net - Let us begin with the information that the meeting, or rather its threshold, was "marred" by ordinary sharp and bellicose statements of the Azerbaijani President. "We will liberate our lands by force" declared the Azerbaijani President before every Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting, but these statements were paid absolutely no attention to. However, this time exactly with this declaration the world media began their reports from Munich. One could even say that they took the Aliyev threats very seriously, and, as a consequence, the tone of the publications changed. They made it clear for the "militant" president that in this historical period his words are inappropriate. Moreover, they can actually provoke a war that would not in the best way affect not only the region (which is last thought about), but also the mediators, namely Russia, France and the United States. To be honest, the war in the Caucasus is beneficial only to Russia, which at one stroke can regain her lost positions, irrespective of who will win the war. The fact that the number of estimated losses of the Azerbaijani army has been voiced, suggests the actual possibility of a military solution to the conflict, or rather, the possibility of yet another defeat of the Azerbaijani army. We do not yet say that war is inevitable, but the conflicting parties may be put before this fact too. What will Ilham Aliyev and his entourage do, if it doesn't come out as he wants it to, but as it should? Examples are apparent: Heydar Aliyev successfully lost the war and signed a cease-fire agreement, immediately promising his people that he would "return the lands". Oops! He didn't manage. The same fate awaits his son.

Generally speaking, we do not want to take seriously any of Ilham Aliyev's statements, and it is at first sight strange that all the interested parties should have made a fuss over this statement. In the words of Vafa Guluzade, who has long been close to the Aliyev family and knows them quite well, in reality the position of the parties remains unchanged. "Armenia insists on unification or independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, but Azerbaijan refuses. As far as some new elements are concerned, they are not so noteworthy," declared Guluzade. Touching upon the reasons for extremely harsh statements issued by the Azerbaijani authorities on the possibility of ending the negotiation process and resuming military actions, Guluzade quoted the OSCE Minsk Group Russian Co-Chair Yuri Merzlyakov, who had stressed that such statements are purely for internal use.

Well, maybe this time the statements were not so much for internal use, but no good came of them either. War in the region is beneficial to no one, and especially to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, few people noticed that almost all the publications of the world media said, yet disguised, that it is the war of Karabakh Armenians, who proclaimed independence and behind whom stands Armenia. The terminology "war between Armenia and Azerbaijan" gradually gives way to "negotiations between Baku and Stepanakert". And the only essential thing now to do is to ensure security of communications and stability in the region that faces a more serious threat: the possible establishment of "Independent Kurdistan" by the United States. That's when really neither Turkey nor Iran or Syria and especially Ilham Aliyev will be in the mood to occupy themselves with Karabakh issues. The recently signed pact between Turkey, Syria and Iran aimed exactly against the establishment of a Kurdish state. So, the world powers are concerned about itt, and not about "the efforts of the Minsk Group", which somehow or other does its job. Moreover, this activity is not honorary for the mediating countries. Money begins to flow like water, when there is the possibility of military solution to a conflict, as it was the case with the former Yugoslavia.