Predicting future in a troubled region is akin to making wild guesses

PanARMENIAN.Net -

In 2010, the role of Turkey as a regional leader appears to have enhanced, while Iranian attempts to force Ankara out led to nothing. Moreover, Tehran is now in some way dependent on Turkey. The policy of isolation, presented to the West as an “Islamic value” strikes Iran harder and harder. It seems that the best model for this country would be the Turkish form of state: secularism in word, Islamism in deed. Unfortunately, or perhaps, fortunately, Iran has no outstanding figures equal to Atatürk. Late Ayatollah Khomeini was simply a religious leader, who played on the feelings of devout Muslims and on the hatred towards the United States. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cannot share the fate of Saddam Hussein; he has all the “opportunities” for it. One of the pessimistic ways of development of the region in 2011 may be the US-Iranian war. As we have already mentioned, Washington simply cannot allow himself to not to have control over oil and gas anywhere in the world, especially when if their resources are rather much. Iran has 16% of world’s natural gas reserves and about 10% of the world's oil reserves. Moreover, these figures reflect only the explored reserves. In fact, the amount of hydrocarbons may be much greater. Let us note that the story of Iran’s nuclear program is very much like the story of charges brought against Iraq on the latter’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). When it became clear that Iraq has no such weapons, it was already too late: Iraq ceased to exist, control of oil was in the hands of the U.S., and Saddam was executed. The scenario does not shine with originality, but its repetition is possible, so why invent something new?

Another neighbor of Armenia – Turkey - , in all likelihood has almost said good-bye to the illusive hopes of joining the EU, and now tries to establish the semblance of it in the East. Admittedly, this attempt has to some extent worked well. The elections of 2011, most likely, will finally consolidate the position of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and Erdogan may be the next president of Turkey. Relations with Armenia will remain at the same freezing point for at least a couple of years.

Georgia will continue trying to “restore its territorial integrity” and playing on anti-Russian sentiments. This path is doomed to failure, and the statements of Mr. Saakashvili, very often inappropriate, may play him false. He may finally turn into a disobedient child that must be punished. By the way, the punishment will be inflicted by Russia, thus making it even harsher.

Well, and our “sworn friend” Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev may try to launch a war in Nagorno-Karabakh but he will be able to hold out only a day or two. Baku had better not fancy what will happen then, as despite the huge quantity of arms and colossal sums of money, the Azerbaijani army is unable to fight. Of course, there will again be mercenaries, and unfortunately not only from Islamic countries... Anyway, Baku has to whistle for victory at least because she won’t be able to do anything in five days, and the world leaders will not give her more time. Thus, she will get another 10 thousands of victims, several more lost areas and, consequently, a push-aside from the oil trough, which for the Aliyev clan is equivalent to death.

This is roughly what awaits us next year. But we may also prove to be wrong and in that case it will come up all the way around. Predicting the future in such a troubled region even for one year is difficult, it is akin to reading the tea leaves. There may always be found a head of state who would in one stroke destroy the entire South Caucasus. It is precisely what Ilham Aliyev and Mikhail Saakashvili are presently engaged in. Let’s hope that their efforts will come to naught.