Karabakh Settlement "Lucky" in a Way

I want to say that is the first attempt to give a complete picture of the Karabakh conflict. As a neutral part but worried about the Caucasus, I tried to write about the tragedies of the peoples that happened during these years. Now the book is being read in the region and I hear complaints like "Why didn't you write more about this or that?" the journalist said. In his words, the book was written to make people think about the grief of others. As for the refugees, I write about Armenians, who were expelled from Sumgait, Baku and Shahumyan and about Azeris expelled from Armenia, Karabakh and the territories adjacent to it.

The future peaceful treaty on the Nagorno Karabakh problem should provide for the right of refugees to return home. Practically everything is very complicated. It's more real to speak of return of Azeris to Aghdam and Fizuli where nobody lives. It's more difficult but still possible to speak of return of people to Lachin and Shushi. But it's quite unlikely that Armenians can return to Shahumyan or Baku and Azeris can return to Armenia in the near future. If they cannot return compensation should be negotiated

Permanent political instability in Azerbaijan was an important factor in the Karabakh war. During the critical battles for Shushi and Lachin the Azeri troops left for Baku to meddle in the internal political disorders. The greatest territorial surrenders were Aghdam and Fizuli and they occurred in 1994.
Anyone knows that the geographical map cannot be changed. Armenians and Azeris will always have to live as neighbors and it's painful to see that the two societies abide by the slogan "Karabakh is ours and it's inseparable". Neither of the parties is ready for compromise that is why it's hard to achieve complete peace. The leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan is responsible for it. The peaceful plan is generally outlined. Karabakh will de-facto maintain the present status with the corridor to Armenia; Azerbaijan will receive its lands back and refugees will be allowed to return… However the settlement process cannot be started without dialogue and mutual trust.

The young people in Azerbaijan are growing more radical than their parents. When the elder generation watch the propaganda on TV they still remember their Armenian friends and they know that not all Armenians are invaders. The young generation lacks this experience what conveys a greater impulse to the calls for war and impedes the negotiation process. I think Armenia doesn't fully understand the pain that Azeris suffer over the loss of the territories. I am not speaking about Karabakh. I am speaking about the big territories and towns which are completely ruined and empty now - Aghdam, Fizuli, Jabrail, Kabatly… But it's known that any peaceful agreement will provide for the return of these territories. Armenians should openly speak of it to make Azerbaijani radicals think what they want to fight for. As a matter of fact, 90% of the issues are settled and the negotiation process stumbles over the Karabakh status only.

I do not reproach the mediators of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. I think the Karabakh settlement is "lucky" in a way, since experienced diplomats from three powers - the U.S., Russia and France - deal with it. It's very hard to make peace between two new semi-democratic states, which grew up and formed due to this conflict and which are still afraid of each other. The Rambouillet talks proved it once again.

The internal political processes, first of all elections, impede the negotiation process. I doubt there will be a breakthrough this year. Though I think the discussion of the stepwise settlement of the conflict is a positive sign. Possibly it will promote the process.

I support any idea, which bases on democratic will of the people. The referendum in 1991 was held without the participation of the Azeri population and is consequently illegitimate. It's clear that the referendum will end in favor of Armenians. But there should be a mechanism that will restore the rights of Karabakh Azeris. We can watch the sad example of North Ireland where the majority used democratic processes to suppress the minority.