Turkish Foreign Policy Priorities to Undergo No Changes

Turkish membership to the EU is very important for Turkey. I consider the EU as a union of states seeking for a more prosperous and better future. Turkey has been on the track since 1959 and albeit some ups and downs maintained its target to become a member. It is a state policy. The process of transformation in which Turkey currently is turns it into a more democratic modern state. I strongly support Turkish membership to the EU. It is also important to note that the future Turkish entry to the Union is also crucial for Europe's future. Will Europe become a real global economic and political power, preventing the clash of civilizations and promoting peace and harmony and offering wealth to more nations.

Turkey reacted in the past very harshly but inefficiently against the recognition of the "genocide". In fact, the problem in Turkey is not about the recognition of the events which occurred in 1915 but about the qualification of those events as "genocide". I think the word "genocide" prevents both parts from talking about the events and I think this is a real pity. I always defend that the Armenian Diaspora in the US or in Europe does not help the Turkish-Armenian "state to state rapprochement".

I think a vote on this issue will be very unfortunate. Turkey and Turks will certainly react more seriously than they did against the French Law but I have my doubts about the efficiency in the long term of Turkish reactions (it can be a wide range of reaction: boycott of American products, restriction of military cooperation, no help to the US in Iraq and more generally in the Middle East, rapprochement with Russia and Iran etc...)

However, if the recognition occurs, one shall not forget that this is a resolution not a law like it was the case in France. Turkish political leaders may or may not prefer to explain it to the Turkish public opinion. A resolution does not have legal effects. This aspect should may be underlined by the Turkish politicians.

No major shift should be expected. The President does not have real diplomatic authority in Turkey. The power in defining the foreign policy rests with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister. It is very likely that there will be a coalition government in Turkey in 2007 so I do not expect any major change.

I think the use of this article has been very abusive and authors such as Orhan Pamuk or Elif Safak have been subject to prosecution. However, the public opinion leaders see the danger and strongly fight for it to be modified. ARI Movement is among the NGOs which push in this direction.