Cooperation with Russia main condition for Karabakh conflict settlement

PanARMENIAN.Net - "In recent months, relations between Georgia and Russia have deteriorated. The clash between these two states is only a symptom of the broader strategic positioning of the West and Russia in and around the South Caucasus. In this scenario, at regional and global levels, countries and organizations are involved in a struggle for power and energy security. Considering these two issues, what is the current situation in the South Caucasus and what can be expected in the future?" says the report titled ''Current Geostrategy in the South Caucasus'' issued by Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Marcel de Haas, the Senior Research Fellow on military doctrine, strategy, and security policy of NATO, EU, Russia and CIS, at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael in The Hague.



"Affecting the region are the political-military and security policies of the actors involved. These actors include Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and their "frozen" conflicts of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, the leverage of regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, and of global powers, such as the United States, Russia and China, is part of the power configuration in the region.



In addition to countries, international organizations are also involved in this game. At the regional level, there is the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), the Black Sea Force (BLACKSEAFOR) the Caspian Sea Force (CASFOR), the cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova (GUAM) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). At the global level, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union also exercise political weight in the South Caucasus.



Washington wants a stable South Caucasus region for its investment in the energy sector, as well as for its geostrategic interests in the region. The separatist regions in Georgia -- Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- have become areas of the major players' interests in the region. With the exception of the tensions surrounding Tbilisi, Russia has not played a very neutral role in these conflicts. Russia has used the conflicts as political leverage with the West.



Concerning the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the outlook is similar to that of the Georgian regions. The main foreign actors in this conflict -- Russia, the United States and the European Union -- will have to find a compromise. At the moment, the United States is the party most interested in solving the conflict and is putting serious efforts into finding a settlement. Yet, political will and public support has to be created on both sides. It seems that political pressure is rising on Azerbaijan and Armenia. The United States -- perhaps more than Europe -- has the military, political and economic capacities, and, due to its investments, the will to force a breakthrough in the negotiations. Just like the Georgian separatist regions, the main condition for a solution is cooperation with and by Russia," the report says.