Syrian stranglehold for Iran

PanARMENIAN.Net - Meanwhile the situation in Syria is much worse than in Iran, which suffers international isolation and numerous sanctions. The anti-government protesters want to oust President Bashar al-Assad, whose power base encompasses the Alawite minority while the majority of the population are Sunni Muslims.

Religion is an important factor in Middle East, with division into friends and enemies often made due to religious affiliation. Thus, Iran is actively using Shiite communities in Arab countries while Sunni monarchs of the Persian Gulf as well as Turkey fear Shiite expansion that would inevitably mean strengthening of Iran's position.

Turkey's support of the Arab unrest can partially be explained by the policy of neo-Ottomanism pursued by the current Turkish leaders who are even ready to sacrifice allied relations with Israel to strengthen influence in the Arab world.

As to Assad regime, one cans presume that it will not last long, givens the pressure of the West and its Arab supporter. You can accuse the United States and Europe of hypocrisy and doubles standards (let's remember the military oppression in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, where many civilians were killed), but the Sunnis will come to power in Syria, with the overall tendency of radical Islamism gaining influence across Middle East.

For Iran, collapse of Assad stronghold would result in a complete circle of enemies: Turkey and unfriendly Syria, pro-Turkish Azerbaijan [which openly claims Iran's northern provinces], Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf and NATO-controlled Afghanistan.

Under this scenario, the U.S. may prefer siege of Iran with the help of economic sanctions and support of Iranian opposition to a military attack. It's hard to imagine the consequences of the dramatic rise in prices for oil that will inevitably follow in case of escalation of tensions in Persians Gulf.

It's also worth mentioning that Washington needs the Iranian 'nuclear threat' for deployment of its missile defense shield in Europe. Otherwise, it will have serious problems explaining to Moscow why the U.S. needs missiles at the Russian border.