One must always be ready for a trick from Baku

PanARMENIAN.Net - The latest visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the region is already a sign that Baku’s position in the settlement of the conflict is rather shaky, and no one is any more caught at the endless mentions of a military solution or the already boring talks about the return of Azerbaijani refugees. Despite the fact that the co-chairs were, as always, diplomatic in their expressions, visiting Stepanakert through the contact line of NKR Defense Army and Azerbaijani Armed Forces can also be considered symbolic. If you distinguish all the gibberish from the Azerbaijani side, it becomes clear that the mediators simply wanted to make sure from which side and how the ceasefire regime is violated. Moreover, both the OSCE Minsk Group and EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby emphasized several times that all the refugees are meant, including Armenians deported from Azerbaijan and from Nagorno Karabakh.

But these are already details. The most important thing is that Yerevan hastened to term withdrawal of the resolution as “victory of Armenian diplomacy”. But it must be admitted that this is just a temporary success, which, if not developed, will remain only a “success” and will give Baku a handle to introduce new resolutions. But Baku has already missed her chance. Azerbaijan has calculated that if Turkey is chairman of the General Assembly of the UN, the resolution can be easily passed with her help, especially since the project is supported by the countries of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), and, with some reservations, by the League of Arab States (LAS). Things are much more complicated with LAS, because the Arab world does not stand new Turkic-speaking and Iranian-speaking organizations and therefore it would be naïve to speak of the unconditional support to Azerbaijan, for example, by Egypt. Under the current circumstances, the LAS would rather support Armenia, because Yerevan poses no threat to Islam from the Arabic point of view. President Mubarak, who in due time banned extremist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, did a good turn to Egypt and to the Arab world in general. Saudi Arabia and the smaller emirates do not play an essential role in the Middle East game and therefore it is right for the LAS to be guided by the opinion of the OSCE Minsk Group. On a large scale, even the Islamic countries do not need much to support Azerbaijan, since most of them do not even know the place of Azerbaijan on the map and that of Nagorno-Karabakh, all themore. All this, however, does not mean that Armenia can relax until September 2011. One must always be ready for a trick from Baku, and if she failed in the UN, she’ll try to carry the resolution to the OSCE, or at worst to NATO. All these options are so hollow, that they are not even worth discussing. Nevertheless, it is necessary to always be ready. International community very easily changes its priorities, and if the interests of today require the support of one of the conflicting parties, tomorrow everything may change upside down. We must be prepared especially for that.

In any case the fact that the resolution was withdrawn is a positive occurrence. Very little is left to wait; after the parliamentary elections of November 7 Baku will not feel like dealing with Karabakh, because opposition is getting stronger in Azerbaijan and the power of the Aliyev clan is not strong enough not to be overthrown. Dispersal of the opposition (and it is inevitable), bloody as always, will once again prove that Azerbaijan has no place in the list of democratic states. Quite like Turkey, but that is a separate topic.