There Are No Preconditions for Karabakh Conflict Settlement at Present

The thesis on the conflict settlement is ungrounded. Presently there are no preconditions for it. I would describe such statements as radical optimism but this optimism only increases military rhetoric. Neither the Armenian nor Azeri society is ready for concession and the conflict settlement process experiences a serious crisis.

The format of the summit, that is the meetings of the leaders of the states, is not efficient. The Presidents have done nothing to prepare the societies for compromise so far. The spirit reigning among the peoples is more radical than that of the Presidents. That is why they should develop the model of patriotic conduct. First, this summit is being transformed into PR campaign instead of real talks on compromise. Second, the OSCE Minsk Group proposes things far from reality and political situation in the region. Russia could change the format of the summit reducing it to the level of diplomats and let the leaders of the states sign the final agreement. World practice records no situation when Presidents acted as diplomats.

The U.S. having many interests in the region is going to seriously base here. Russia will have to work under new circumstances, since it's not capable to force the U.S. or EU out of the region. Consequently points of interaction should be sought for. A kind of hysteria troubles Russia lately. Both the United States and Russia are interested in the settlement of conflicts in the post soviet space. Russia should not produce illusions but activate participation in the peacekeeping operations including Karabakh settlement.

Peacekeepers in NKR could be to the point in 1994. If Russia managed to deploy its forces there it would be good. Let me remind that the bloodshed in Abkhazia was stopped by Russian peacemakers. Should other forces be there at that time, no one knows how it could end. I have big doubts that international peacekeepers will be able to deal with the refugee flow. Do you imagine a scene when a Finnish or Swedish faces am advancing crowd of refugees? He is prohibited from firing but is incapable to stop it.

For some reasons the settlement of the conflict is being bound with the return of refugees. However refugees appear as a humanitarian problem. They should be paid compensations. In general the problem of release of the regions is the hardest one. I would like to attract your attention to another fact. The Armenian side is also speaking of refugees from Azerbaijan. However from the viewpoint of formal European law there are no Armenian refugees. They left Azerbaijan before the hostilities broke off and cannot be considered refugees. That is why I am speaking of compensation.

If Azerbaijan resumes war, its initial positions will be much worse than in 1991. Azeris go not have Shushi, Kelbajar and Lachin that cut Karabakh off Armenia. Presently there are seven regions which Azerbaijan calls seized. For Armenia these fortified regions form a security belt. Moreover, one should not forget about the complex of winner that reign among Armenians and the complex of defeated Azeris.

Heydar Aliyev had been for long time preparing the international community for the image of Azerbaijan as a state that was subjected to aggression including the "genocide of Azeris". In this context the resumption of hostilities will immediately break the image Azerbaijan cherishes in the West. The attempt to take revenge will be negatively perceived by Europe and the U.S.